Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic will enter next season as the reigning two-time MVP and has a chance to do something only three players have ever done. Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird are currently the only players to ever win three straight MVPs, and winning another would put Jokic in elite company.
It’s certainly possible, but history isn’t on his side. Then again, Jokic is rewriting the record books by putting up unprecedented numbers, making it hard to compare him to former MVPs. Therefore, let’s take a closer look at Jokic and see whether he has a chance to win a third straight MVP.
The Denver Nuggets will be better, and that could benefit Jokic.
The Denver Nuggets finished last season with just a 48-34 record despite having the MVP, but that was due to the absence of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Murray, and Porter Jr. combined to average more than 40 points per game during the 2020-21 season, and their return will give Jokic some much-needed help.
A better team could help Jokic’s case, but he’ll have to perform at least as well as he did last season. That’s a high bar to clear given he averaged 27.5 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game.
Still, he’s only 27 years old, and players tend to get better, not worse, at that age. He also benefits from former winners having “aged out” of contention. After all, the oldest MVP ever was 35, and while there are several former MVPs like Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry, all still playing at a high level, it’s unlikely that they’ll win another.
The MVP is unofficially a young man’s award. Don’t believe me? The last 16 winners have all been under the age of 30, and, since 2000, Steve Nash has been the only player over the age of 30 to win the award.
Jokic has several advantages but will face tough competition for MVP.
With the MVP award seemingly limited to players in their twenties, there are still several players who can challenge him next season. His main competitors for the award are Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jason Tatum, and Ja Morant, but Jokic has already beaten out several of those players for MVP before.
All of those things definitely work in his favor, but he’s still far from a lock to win the award again. We’ve already established that historical comparisons are spotty when it comes to Jokic, but there is a trend that’s worth discussing.
Look at the players who have won MVP in back-to-back seasons; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Nash, James, Curry, and Antetokounmpo. Each of them was in their primes when they won the award, so it’s not as though they fell off after winning consecutive MVPs.
Performance alone doesn’t guarantee Jokic will win MVP next season.
It’s likely that voters either judge reigning MVPs based on their previous MVP seasons, get tired of voting for them, or another superstar player diverts attention away from them. For example, Antetokounmpo averaged an incredible 29.9 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists last season but only finished third in MVP voting.
This is despite those numbers being comparable to the ones he put up during his two MVP seasons. Sometimes stats, and even team records, don’t matter. There’s a scenario in which Jokic is as good, or even better, next season, but Embiid is the one that wins the award. Embiid is certainly a worthy candidate, but some voters, who previously picked Jokic, may decide to vote for someone else rather than select the same player three years in a row.
Or, maybe great players like Morant, Tatum, or Doncic win the MVP simply because their teams are better next season. That makes predicting who will win the MVP incredibly complicated since individual performance is apparently only a part of the criteria.
Overall, the Denver Nuggets should be much better next season, and there’s little reason to expect Jokic will fall off. It remains to be seen whether he will 3-peat as MVP, but he appears to have a good chance.