2 keys for the rest of the Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks series

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks continued their titanic struggle on Saturday in Game 3 of their second-round series. Despite a late Celtics surge, the Bucks held on after a game-tying tip-in from Al Horford was ruled to have come after the final buzzer.

Going back to Game 1, the Bucks’ defense was all-conquering, keeping the Celtics to a near-record-low ten made two-point field goals and just 33.3% from the field overall. Boston responded in Game 2, breaking the game open early by making 13 of their 20 first-half three-point attempts.

Two key elements will determine the outcome of the Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks series, both of which signify the contrast in styles between the two teams.

2 keys for the rest of the Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks series

The first is the reliance on three-point shooting – will Boston shoot themselves in the foot like in Games 1 and 3, or shoot the lights out like in Game 2? Milwaukee has made 24 of their 86 three-point attempts (27.9%) across the first three games.

In comparison, Boston took 50 attempts alone in Game 1, followed by 43 in Game 2, but just 33 in Game 3. They’ve made 47 of those 126 attempts (37.3%).

Overall, Boston’s 126 three-point attempts account for just over 50% of their overall field goal attempts. This number sat at just 42.5% in the regular season, signifying the Celtics’ intent to shoot from deep and Milwaukee’s focus on defending the paint.

Again, in contrast, the Bucks 86 three-point attempts account for just 32.8% of their overall field goal attempts. This number was at 43% in the regular season, signifying Boston’s intent to defend the three-point line and the effect of Khris Middleton’s loss.

After watching the first three games of this playoff series, and particularly the first two, it seems outrageous that Milwaukee actually shot a greater percentage of three-point attempts than Boston during the regular season. But with Middleton out, they have an even greater reliance on Giannis Antetokounmpo, which leads to the second key element.

The two-time MVP is averaging just over 27 field goal attempts through the first three games, up from 18.6 during the regular season. This isn’t surprising, but the decrease in efficiency is. After shooting 55.3% from the field during the regular season, Boston’s much-vaunted defense has kept Antetokounmpo to 43.9% (36-of-82) this series.

We saw eerily similar numbers in the first round. After shooting 51.8% during the regular season, Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant had a highly-publicized struggle as the Celtics clamped him to just 38.6% from the field. As the series heads to Milwaukee, will Antetokounmpo’s efficiency struggles continue, or will he respond in a way we know he can?

The positive for Antetokounmpo is that Milwaukee won Game 1, and despite the shooting struggles, his 24-point triple-double was still better than any performance Durant had mustered.

Boston’s defensive reputation has grown enormously over the second half of the season, and if they can maintain this performance against the Bucks’ superstar, then it’ll enter the discussion as one of the best defensive units in modern NBA history.

So as we look ahead to Game 4 and beyond, be on the lookout for how each team manipulates the three-point line to their advantage. Also, of course, let’s see how Antetokounmpo can respond to the heat of Boston’s defense.