Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season

Forecasting the Oklahoma City Thunder at mid-season: The negatives

The small-market and star-driven Oklahoma City Thunder have systematically built their roster year after year, and this next rebuild will be no different, acquiring talent through the draft and free agents who’ve slipped through the cracks.

Presti and his team are credited with finding pieces that complemented their MVP talents and shaped OKC as a contender. This includes Reggie Jackson in 2011, Steven Adams and Andre Roberson in 2013, and Enes Freedom (formerly Kanter) in 2015.

A remarkable foundation had been built so all those players could develop at their own pace, benefitting alongside the brilliance of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, not to mention Serge Ibaka, too.

This current group of prospects isn’t afforded the same luxury, forced to produce quickly with heavier minutes. However, it has allowed management to separate its roster early on between the rebuild must-keeps and the rebuild must-leaves.

Darius Bazley is the first must-leave that comes to mind. Once a five-star high school recruit who was the first major prospect to bypass college basketball in order to play in the G-League, a decision he later voided when he signed on as a New Balance intern.

In what was supposed to be his freshman campaign at Syracuse, Bazley spent the 2018-19 season preparing for the draft on his own, wowing scouts enough to be selected 23rd overall by the Jazz before finally landing in Oklahoma City after some trades.

Coming into the league at 6-8, he was an athletic power forward who found most comfort spacing the floor. And he was impressive as a rookie in his lone playoff appearance in the Orlando bubble.

Earning a much bigger role coming into his second season, he started all his games at power forward as a critical piece in the Thunder’s rebuild, but against much stiffer competition, he crumbled.

In 31.2 minutes over 55 starts, Bazley shot 39.6 percent from the field on 12.5 shot attempts per game, 29.0 percent from three-point range on 5.2 attempts per game, and saw a surprising dip his shot-blocking numbers as they fell from 0.7 to 0.5 per game.

It’s a major adjustment going from playing in a Chris Paul offense as a rookie to then having a leading role on one of the worst and youngest teams in basketball, so this third season was another chance to prove himself.

Through 42 games in 2021-22, Bazley is playing even worse, lowering his field goal percentage to 38.8 percent, his three-point percentage to 26.0 percent, and his scoring from an inefficient 13.7 points per game to an even more abysmal 8.8 points per game.

Bazley still looks very raw offensively, hasn’t made strides defensively apart from some blocked shots, has no fluidity in his jump shooting, hasn’t improved his three-point shooting, and the coaching staff has lost confidence that he can remain in the starting lineup.

Even though Bazley is only 21 years old, Oklahoma City knows he’s miles away from being a foundational piece for a rebuilding team. This was best illustrated by the fact that his best year was in a reserve role on a winning team. A player without any college or G-League development is going to continue struggling on a very bad team, and he’s not the only player the team would be wise to move on from.

Isaiah Roby made a name for himself at Nebraska as an athletic big man and tenacious shot-blocker. He was a late second-round pick finding his way to the Dallas Mavericks before being shipped out during his rookie year to Oklahoma City.

Roby came onto the scene in his second year, starting about half his games at center for the newly rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder. He was a decent inside finisher but mostly a strong rebounder at only 6-8.

Now in his third season, Roby has been ousted by steady rookie Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but while his shooting has improved, I’m not sure he’s a real piece moving forward. He hasn’t done anything to show that he can’t be a meaningful player, yet he appears to be an undersized center who’s not all that great shooting outside the paint.

On a team increasingly desperate for easier baskets and length in the frontcourt, I believe Roby’s minutes would be best utilized elsewhere, like on Robinson-Earl and experienced big men, and management seems to be trending in that direction, too, with Roby exiting the starting lineup.