Los Angeles Lakers: Why LeBron James return hurts Talen Horton-Tucker

There is a perception within the Los Angeles Lakers‘ organization that Talen Horton-Tucker should be a candidate for a starting lineup spot on most nights. Head Coach, Frank Vogel, stated on November 18th that Tucker’s contributions on the offensive and defensive side of the ball over his first three games have vaulted him into consideration for a starting lineup spot, long-term.

However, the return of Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James will hurt Talen Horton-Tucker, as it forces the team to accentuate his weakness Tucker’s contributions over his first three games were significantly related to the absence of LeBron James.

Los Angeles Lakers: Why LeBron James returning hurts Talen Horton-Tucker

He is a player who needs to be close to the basket to have success. For instance, he took 30.9 percent of his shots in the restricted area at Iowa State University during the 2018-19 season, as he averaged 3.4 shots per game.

Tucker capitalized on the restricted area field goal attempts, converting 70.3 percent of them. The field goal percentage allowed him to average 4.7 points per game in the restricted area – 40.2 percent of his scoring output.

The young wing continued to succeed in the restricted area as a professional, making 61 percent of his attempts during his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers on 3.8 shots per game in that area. He averaged 4.6 points in the restricted area, equal to more than half of his scoring output.

Tucker improved his efficiency in the restricted area to another level during his first three appearances this season, shooting 61.9 percent on 7 shots per game. He generated 8.6 points in the restricted area, which accounted for 36.9 percent of his points as he averaged 23.3 per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers wing has gotten into the restricted area in two different ways this season – as a pick and roll ball handler and in transition. He has spent 28.2 percent of his possessions as a pick and roll ball handler over the first four games, averaging 5 possessions per game. Tucker has shot 43.8 percent on these possessions on 4 shots. He has averaged 3.8 points per game as a pick and roll ball handler this season.

His pick and roll skillset has been complemented with transition possessions, as they account for 29 percent of his possessions, averaging 4.3 per game. Tucker has feasted on these transition possessions, shooting 54.5 percent from the field on 2.8 shots per game.

He has averaged 5.3 points per game in transition. The combination of Tucker’s transition and pick and roll successes have allowed him to average 9.1 points per game – 39.1 percent of his scoring output.

However, Tucker is likely to experience a decrease in both of these areas due to the return of LeBron James. James has accounted for 24.1 percent of the team’s transition possessions during his first 7 games, averaging 5.1 per game.

He has also been a big participant in the team’s pick and roll offensive sets, as he accounts for 49.1 percent of those possessions, averaging 8.6 per game. Consequently, Tucker is likely to spend more time off the ball as a floor spacer because of James’ offensive role.

For example, Tucker took six shots in his fourth game of the season against Boston. 33.3 percent of those shots were from behind the arc. Unfortunately, Tucker has a history of struggling in this role.

Tucker only converted 30.8 percent of his attempts at Iowa State on 4.5 shots per game. Tucker’s three-point shooting struggles are still occurring in the NBA, as he has only made 29.7 percent of his attempts on 2.2 shots per game.

More importantly, Tucker attempted 0 shots in the restricted area. In conclusion, although Talen Horton-Tucker has had a phenomenal first three games, the presence of James will make him play worse because he won’t get a chance to be close to the basket.