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Miami Heat: Diagnosing the recent struggles of the team

By Michael Shearer

MIAMI, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 21: Kyle Lowry #7, Jimmy Butler #22, Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat look on against the Milwaukee Bucks at FTX Arena on October 21, 2021 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 21: Kyle Lowry #7, Jimmy Butler #22, Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat look on against the Milwaukee Bucks at FTX Arena on October 21, 2021 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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Miami Heat
Jordan Clarkson #00 of the Utah Jazz and Kyle Lowry #7 of the Miami Heat are separated after a scuffle during the first half (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Diagnosing the recent struggles of the Miami Heat: Opponents are hitting from downtown

Miami runs a switch-heavy defensive scheme that sends aggressive help on drives to the basket and gives up a ton of three-point attempts. Ideally, the Heat would give up those shots to poor shooters and, therefore, would avoid punishment. This plan worked to perfection for the first half of the season, but things have changed.

Per Cleaning The Glass, before November 3, 44.9 percent of opponents’ shots were threes – the most allowed in the league. Opponents only shot 31.1 percent, however. Since then, 42.7% of shots allowed are threes (still third-most), but teams are hitting 36.6 percent.

36.6 percent from three is just a bit above average, so it’s not like teams are shooting out of their minds, but Miami would like to keep that number lower.

The Miami Heat prioritize helping in the post and on drives, and rely upon smart defenders to energetically close out on shooters. When it works, it looks like this:

The Heat trap up top and Kyle Lowry comes down from the right corner to the middle to deny a post entry pass. This forces a long pass across the court to Bones Hyland in the corner, and Lowry does a hard, but controlled, close-out to contest the shot.

When it doesn’t work, it looks like this:

Kyle Lowry helps on the PJ Dozier drive but loses track of his man, Will Barton, who smartly relocates into Lowry’s blind spot and nails the open three.

Milwaukee has famously bucked the trend of minimizing opponent threes these last few years. They protect the paint at all costs, giving up oodles of threes, but only to mediocre or bad shooters. Not all threes are created equal, and Milwaukee’s idea was to force complementary players into being high-volume three-point shooters, a role many aren’t comfortable with.

Miami is trying to do something similar (albeit via different methods), but that relies upon players playing with high energy and high IQ. Breakdowns are inevitable, but the Heat have the players to make this scheme work.

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