Utah Jazz: Predicting final record and postseason outcome

The Utah Jazz were a delightful surprise last season, featuring a prolific offense and a historic 3-point shooting attack. On top of that, they have perhaps the preeminent defender in the entire NBA in the form of Rudy Gobert, and that added up in a big way.

In spite of having the best regular-season record in the league at 52-20, they ended up with nothing to show for it other than a second-round defeat to the badly wounded LA Clippers. Even without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers were able to dismiss the Jazz in six games and moved on to the Western Conference Finals.

The Utah Jazz had a frustrating end to their season in the Western Conference Playoffs. Can they hope to improve upon their finish?

The Jazz pulled off this remarkable regular season in one of the most turbulent years the NBA has ever seen. COVID-19 wiped entire teams off the map for stretches of a week or more, including the Washington Wizards for almost two weeks. In spite of their now-legendary participation in the night in Oklahoma City that led to the suspension of the 2019-20 NBA season, the Jazz managed to stay fairly unscathed.

Around them, teams were battered by injuries and misfortune. The Los Angeles Lakers lost LeBron James for 27 games, and missed exactly half of the season, playing in just 36 games. The Denver Nuggets lost Jamal Murray just as they were peaking after trading for Aaron Gordon, and the Dallas Mavericks were a team beset with a slow start and a wave of COVID infections.

The Portland Trail Blazers lost CJ McCollum for 25 games, and the Golden State Warriors were a shell of themselves as Stephen Curry mounted one of the most fantastic seasons of his career to drag his team to 39 wins.

This isn’t to suggest the Jazz were unworthy of their lofty record or that they were merely lucky to find so much success. However, it’s safe to say that terrible things won’t happen to ALL of their top competitors in the Western Conference next season, which will certainly complicate the path to getting that No. 1 seed back for a second straight season.

Other than simply having the best players, health and availability reign supreme in the NBA and the Jazz will find themselves battling to keep pace with the high bar they set last season.

With this in mind, here is our prediction for the Jazz’s record next season:

Utah Jazz 2021-22 record: 51 wins
Western Conference standings finish: 3rd

As great as Donovan Mitchell and the rest of their high-scoring guards and wings are, it remains to be seen if they have an answer for elite offenses. The Jazz were exposed by the Clippers as guards like Reggie Jackson and Terrence Mann devastated them inside with drives to the basket, once again raising questions about how effective Gobert can really be in the playoffs.

That won’t get any easier next season, especially if players like Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray can indeed return to action on a reasonable timetable. The rest of the Western Conference could get better simply by maintaining the status quo and getting some modicum of good health luck, and the Jazz don’t really have an answer for that.

So when we’re talking about how they fare against the best of the West, how do the Utah Jazz look to stack up in the NBA playoffs?

Lose 4-2 in the Western Conference Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers

Make no mistake, the Utah Jazz are going to be formidable, but the Lakers look like just too much if they can stay healthy. Given the depth they added in the offseason, the Lakers are the team to beat in the West. The Jazz, unfortunately, are not.