Miami Heat: How Tyler Herro can have a breakout season

Miami Heat guard, Tyler Herro, was chosen as a possible candidate for a breakout season by league executives earlier this month. Michael Scotto of HoopsHype spoke to league executives on September 20th about which young players would have a breakout season during the next campaign. Four percent of those executives chose Herro. However, Herro would need to achieve two goals to have a breakout campaign this upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at what two goals Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro needs to accomplish to have a breakout season.

Herro tends to over-rely on pull-up jumpers. For example, during the third quarter of a home game against the Orlando Magic, Herro had the ball on the right wing. He proceeded to wait a couple of seconds until Chris Silva came over to set a screen. When Silva came to set the pick, he went over it and took a couple of steps towards the middle of the court, before attempting a pull-up three. Unfortunately, Herro would end up missing the shot.

It is not the first time that Herro hasn’t made a pull-up jumper, as it has been an area of weakness for him. Herro shot 37.9 percent on pull-up jumpers during his rookie season on 5.6 attempts per game. During his sophomore campaign, he continued to struggle, only making 37.9 percent of his attempts on 5.9 shots per game.

Herro’s struggles on pull-up jumpers have affected his overall statistics as pull-up jumpers have accounted for 47.1 percent of his total field goal attempts as he has averaged 12.2 shots per game. His overreliance on pull-up jumpers has been the driving force behind him shooting 43.4 percent from the field.

One way that Herro can decrease his pull-up jumpers is by taking more catch-and-shoot attempts. Herro only took 4 pull-up jumpers against Minnesota last season, 32.2 less than his average. He replaced those pull-up jumpers with more catch and shoot attempts, as he took 6 catch and shoot shots during that home game, 106.9 percent more than his season average.

More importantly, Herro had success on those catch and shoot attempts, making 83.3% of his attempts during that game. The field goal percentage on catch and shoot attempts play a vital role in his shooting 76.3 percent from the field during that game on 13 shots. He would score 27 points.

Herro was unable to sustain his catch and shoot statistics against Minnesota for an entire season. However, Herro has remained effective in the catch and shoot department, making 42.4 percent of his shots on 3.15 attempts per game.

Reducing pull-up jumpers isn’t the only aspect of his game that Herro would have to work on to have a big season. He will also need to take more shots in the restricted area. Herro has shown flashes of success when he can get within three feet of the basket.

In that same home game against Orlando, Herro stood at the top of the key while Goran Dragić had the ball on the right wing. Herro stayed there for a couple of seconds until Dragić decided to pass him the ball. Once Herro got the ball, he took a straight line to the basket, blowing by a defender. Herro’s decision to drive culminated in him making a layup.

The game against the Magic was just one example of Herro’s success around the basket as he made 56.4 percent of his shots in the restricted area during his rookie season 1.8 shots. Herro maintained his success in the restricted area in his sophomore season, making 64.5 percent of his attempts on 2.6 shots per game.

Therefore, if Herro can cut back on his pull-up jumpers and drive to the basket more often, the statistics have shown that he will be more effective as a player. Consequently, it will increase the likelihood that he will have a better campaign than his previous two seasons for the Miami Heat.