New York Knicks: Why Mitchell Robinson isn’t the long-term answer at center

The New York Knicks are reportedly willing to extend center Mitchell Robinson if it comes at a reasonable price. Marc Berman of the New York Post stated on August 23rd that the Knicks were open to discussing an extension with Robinson as long as it wasn’t some crazy number.

Berman goes on to state that league insiders believe that a reasonable price for Robinson would be $44 million over four seasons. However, extending Robinson at the current moment would be a bad decision for the New York Knicks as Robinson is a bad stylistic fit with their top player, Julius Randle.

Let’s take a look at why New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson isn’t a good stylistic fit with the team’s current star Julius Randle.

Robinson has found most of his offensive success when he is closer to the basket. For instance, Robinson has excelled as a roll man throughout his professional career, averaging 3 possessions per game. Robinson has shot 78.2 percent from the field as a roll man over his first three seasons on 1.5 shots per game. He has averaged 2.6 points per game as a roll man: 35 percent of his production.

Robinson has been able to supplement his roll-man success by getting offensive rebounds and executing putbacks. Robinson has averaged 4 offensive rebounds throughout his career. Those 4 offensive rebounds per game have led to him averaging 2.6 putback possessions. Robinson made 58.8 percent of the putbacks on 2.1 shots, averaging 2.9 points per game.

Robinson’s success close to the basket has led to him shooting 71.3 percent in the restricted area on 5 shots per game. He has averaged 7.1 points in the restricted area. Robinson’s need to be close to the basket contributed to Julius Randle spending more time behind the arc.

For instance, Randle spent an entire possession standing on the right wing, behind the 3-point line, midway through the 1st quarter of a home game against Brooklyn. While Randle was standing behind the 3-point line, Elfirid Payton had the ball on the left wing, waiting for Mitchell Robinson to set a screen.

Once Robinson came up to set the screen, Payton tried to go over the pick to attack the basket. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find any separation from his defender, leading him to pass the ball to Randle, who shot a wide-open three.

These plays contributed to Randle taking a career-high of 29.3 percent of his shots from behind the arc, averaging 5.5 per game. Unfortunately, Randle struggled from the 3-point line before last season, only making 29.5 percent of his attempts on 1.5 shots per game.

Randle elevated his 3-point shooting skill set last season, converting 41.1 percent of his attempts. However, it is unrealistic to expect him to repeat last season, based on his previous track record.

Consequently, the Knicks need to put Randle in better positioning to succeed. Randle has thrived inside the arc as an NBA player. Randle has shot 41.9 percent in isolation since 2015 on 1.4 shots. The field goal percentage has led to him averaging 2.9 points per game. Randle has combined his isolation skill set with post-work, making 42.5 percent of his shots on 2 attempts per game. He has averaged 2.5 points in the post.

Given Randle’s skillset, the Knicks should look to acquire a floor-spacing center that can stand behind the 3-point line. As a result, Randle will have ample room to operate inside of the arc. A short-term candidate for this role could be Marc Gasol.

The Lakers have agreed to a deal in principle with DeAndre Jordan. This signing of Jordan likely means that Gasol won’t see any rotation minutes with the Lakers next season. As a consequence, the Lakers will most likely be open to trade him.

Gasol would be a perfect candidate to play alongside Randle because he has shot 37 percent from three since 2016 on 3.5 attempts per game. Gasol’s 3-point skillset came to life because his former coach, David Fizdale, wanted to open the floor for Mike Conley.

The only way Fizdale could open up the floor for Conley was to ask Gasol to shoot more threes. Gasol was immediately receptive to the idea as he took 3.6 threes per game during the 2016-17 season. Gasol’s 3-point shooting will allow Randle to operate inside of the arc more frequently.

At the trade deadline, the Knicks could look for more long-term solutions. For instance, they could approach the Milwaukee Bucks about trading for Brook Lopez. Lopez has made 34.4 percent of his threes since 2016 on 5 attempts per game. The team could offer Milwaukee either a first-round pick or Mitchell Robinson and tradeable contracts.

In conclusion, although Mitchell Robinson is a good player, he isn’t a stylistic fit with the team’s best player, Julius Randle.