NBA: Biggest overpays in NBA free agency so far

Second biggest overpay in NBA Free Agency: Spencer Dinwiddie

The second team who overpaid in NBA free agency is the Washington Wizards. The Wizards gave Spencer Dinwiddie a $62 million contract over three years to be the backcourt partner of Bradley Beal.

The Wizards had to give Dinwiddie that more significant contract because the Oklahoma City Thunder planned to offer him a three-year $60 million contract when they met with him later in the week. Unfortunately, there is only one way that the Dinwiddie and Beal partnership could work: pushing Beal off the ball.

Dinwiddie is a player who excels in the pick and roll, shooting 40 percent from the field since 2015 on 4 attempts per game. The shooting percentage allowed him to average 5 points per game: 36 percent of his scoring output.

On the flip side, Dinwiddie is a player who struggles off the ball, converting 35 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 1.4 attempts per game since 2014. Catch and shoots accounted for 32.6 percent of his attempts, as he shot 31.8 percent from behind the arc on 4.3 shots per game.

Dinwiddie’s skillset will force the Wizards to diminish Beal as a player. Beal has posted his best seasons when he can pair his on-ball skills with his off-ball skills. For instance, Bradley Beal made 38.2 percent of his catch and shoot threes during the 2020-21 season on 4.4 attempts per game.

Catch and shoots accounted for 63.8 percent of his attempts, as he shot 34.9 percent from behind the arc on 6.9 shots per game. Beal generated 6.6 points per game from behind the arc: 21.1 percent of his scoring output.

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Beal was able to supplement his off-ball success with his on-ball skills. Beal averaged 9.1 pick and rolls per game, shooting 47.8 percent from the field on 7.1 shots per game. The shooting percentage allowed him to average 8.8 points per game: 28.1 percent of his scoring output.

The presence of Dinwiddie on the roster will force the Wizards to take away some pick-and-roll possessions from Beal because if they don’t, defenders will leave Dinwiddie wide open. Leaving Dinwiddie wide open increases the likelihood that Dinwiddie’s defender will go over to help on Beal, increasing the likelihood that Beal is forced to take a contested shot.

The Wizards would have been better off targeting other free agent point guards who are better floor spacers than Dinwiddie. For example, backup Charlotte Hornets’ point guard, Devonte’ Graham, was a restricted free agent. Graham converted 42.2 percent of his catch and shoot threes since 2017 on 3.3 attempts per game. Catch and shoots accounted for 45.8 percent of his total attempts, as he shot 36.7 percent from behind the arc on 7.2 attempts.

Graham would have allowed Beal still to have all of his pick-and-roll possessions because defenders are less likely to leave him open due to his shooting prowess. More importantly, Devonte’ Graham signed for $15 million less than Dinwiddie as he agreed to a $47 million contract over four years with the New Orleans Pelicans.

In conclusion, although Allen and Dinwiddie are good individual players, they are subpar fits for the teams that they are currently on.