New York Knicks: Julius Randle’s extension came at the wrong time

The New York Knicks have decided to make Julius Randle a franchise cornerstone for the foreseeable future. New York has signed Randle to a $117 million contract extension over 4 seasons, starting during the 2022-23 campaign.

Unfortunately, New York made a mistake by extending Randle a year before his contract was set to expire. There is a strong possibility that Randle will not replicate the statistics he posted last season.

Let’s take a look at why the New York Knicks signed All-Star forward Julius Randle to a contract extension one year too early.

Randle shot 45.6 percent from the field on 18.6 attempts per game. The shooting percentage helped him average a career-high 24.1 points per game. The catalyst behind Randle’s breakout season was his role as primary ball-handler and a massive leap in 3-point shooting.

New took a page of the University of Kentucky’s playbook as they used Randle in the post and isolation sets. Entering the NBA draft in 2014, Randle was known as a guy who did most of his offensive damage in the role of primary ball-handler. 20.9 percent of his possessions at the University of Kentucky came either in isolation or in the post.

He was able to shoot 39.3 percent in the post. The shooting percentage allowed him to score 0.79 points per possession. He was able to complement his post-work with isolations as he scored 0.76 points per possession.

The Knicks replicated how he was used in college as he averaged a career-high of 4.2 post-ups per game. He was able to shoot 46.7 percent from the field on 3 shots a game, averaging 3.9 points per game.

Randle was once again able to complement his post-work with isolations as he averaged a career-high of 5.5 isolations per game. He shot 42 percent from the field on 4.6 shots, averaging 5 points per game.

Randle’s working of the low post and isolations allowed him to average 8.9 points per game: 36.9 percent of his scoring output. Randle complimented his work as the primary ball-handler with success from behind the arc. He shot 41.1 percent from behind the arc on 5.5 attempts creating 6.9 points per game, 28.6 percent of his scoring output.

Randle’s 3-point shooting percentage was 10.3 percent higher than the previous two seasons when he shot 30.8 percent on 3.1 attempts per game. Randle credited hard work during the prior offseason for the big leap in his 3-point shooting statistics.

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Unfortunately, Randle suffered a significant decrease in his 3-point shooting percentage in the playoffs. He shot 33.3 percent from behind the arc on 6.6 attempts per game. A hypothetical explanation for Randle’s 3-point shooting decline was an increased playoff intensity.

The theory has some validity, as Randle saw a 225 percent increase in his contested 3-point attempts from the regular season. Randle went from 0.8 attempts in the regular season to 2.6 in the playoffs. Randle would shoot 30.8 percent on contested threes in the playoffs, a 10.5 percent decrease from the regular season.

Although Randle struggled on contested threes, he also saw a decline in uncontested 3-point  percentage. Randle shot 40.8 percent on his uncontested threes on 4.9 attempts in the regular season. Randle shot 35 percent on uncontested threes on 4 attempts per game.

The decline in uncontested threes is related to a change in atmosphere due to mostly empty arenas. The NBA averaged 2,121 fans during the 2020-21 season: an 88.1 percent decline from the previous season, averaging roughly 17,700.

The catalyst for the decline was the pandemic. Former players believed that players are more relaxed when fewer fans are in the arena and can perform better. Former NBA superstar Scottie Pippen told Business Insider in 2020 that Rajon Rondo probably shot 50 percent from behind the arc in the Orlando bubble because there were no fans. As a result, he was more relaxed and could focus on making shots.

Arenas should be at maximum capacity next season. Therefore, Randle’s statistics will more likely be closer to his postseason performance next season. He shot 29.8 percent from the field on 18.8 attempts. The shooting percentage helped him average 18 points per game.

In conclusion, the Knicks should have waited until the following offseason to extend Randle as it is unknown whether he can replicate last season.