Miami Heat: Why Kawhi Leonard isn’t the best free agent option

The Miami Heat are reportedly interested in signing Kawhi Leonard this offseason. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer stated on July 1st that the team would make an aggressive push to acquire Leonard if he decides to decline his player option before August 1st.

But would Leonard make sense for the Heat? Yes and no. Miami runs an offense that primarily features dribble handoffs and pick-and-rolls. The Heat were second in the league in handoff possessions during the regular season averaging 8.3 per game. Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler took 42.2 percent of those possessions averaging 3.5 per game.

Let’s take a look at why signing Kawhi Leonard would be too expensive for the hypothetical role he would play on the Miami Heat next season.

On the other hand, the team ranked 22nd in pick and roll possessions averaging 17.9 per game. Head coach Erik Spoelstra handed Butler 36.9 percent of those possessions as he averaged 6.6 per game.

Spoelstra’s decision to make Butler and Robinson the faces of his offense contributed to most role-players becoming floor spacers. For instance, Trevor Ariza took 59.3 percent of his shots from behind the arc averaging 4.8 per game. 83.3 percent of those threes were catch and shoots as he averaged 4 per game.

Leonard has the tools to excel as a floor spacer as he has converted 41.9 percent of his catch and shoots since 2013 on 2.6 attempts per game. Catch and shoots accounted for 60.5 percent of his threes, as he shot 38.6 percent from behind the arc on 4.3 shots per game.

Unfortunately, Leonard would be too big of an expense for the team to be subjected to the floor spacer role. Leonard will be asking for a max contract starting at $39.3 million per year. The team would have to give Leonard a prominent role in the offense to validate their decision to pay his asking price.

For example, they would have to make him a ball handler in the offense as he thrives in the pick and roll. He has shot 48.8 percent since 2015 on 4.2 attempts, scoring 5.7 points per game, 23.1 percent of his scoring output.

Sadly, it is unlikely that the team would have to spend a significant amount of time as a ball-handler because of the deficiencies in their current star, Butler. Butler shot 37.5 percent from the restricted area until 2019 on 9.7 attempts per game. Butler has seen a significant decline in his shooting since 2019 as he converted 34.5 percent outside of the restricted area on 8.1 attempts.

Therefore, it increases the likelihood that Leonard will face more double teams if he is given the ball as opponents will leave Butler open. The limitations in Butler’s game should force Leonard in the floor spacer role, which the Heat can fill with cheaper players.

2 cheaper alternatives in free agency to Kawhi Leonard for the Miami Heat

For example, Otto Porter Jr. is an unrestricted free agent this offseason who has made 41.8 percent of his catch and shoots on three attempts per game since 2013. Catch and shoots accounted for 90.9 percent of his threes, as he shot 40.2 percent from behind the arc on 3.3 shots per game. More importantly, Porter should make less than $15 million next season.

If the team can’t agree with Porter, they should move Tony Snell who is also an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Snell has converted 40 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 2.9 attempts per game.

Catch and shoots have been the catalyst behind his 3-point shooting as he has shot 39.7 percent from behind the arc on 3.1 shots per game. In conclusion, Butler’s limitations make it ill-advised for Miami to sign Leonard to a max contract this offseason.