NBA free agent point guard, Dennis Schröder, is reportedly looking for $25-30 million per year on his next contract. German official, Armin Andres, told the Abteilung Basketball podcast on June 29th that Schröder communicated to national officials that he is looking for a contract with between $100-120 million this offseason.
But are Schröder’s demands realistic? Not necessarily, due to this skillset. Schröder is a player who excels as a pick and roll ball handler, shooting 43.5 percent from the field on 6.2 attempts per game since 2015. The field goal percentage contributed to him scoring 8.2 points per game: 50.6 percent of his scoring output.
On the flip side, Schröder has struggled off the ball outside of one year. Schröder made 41.4 percent of his catch and shoots during the 2019-20 season on 3.6 attempts with the OKC Thunder playing under current Chicago Bulls head coach, Billy Donovan. Catch and shoots accounted for 72 percent of his total threes last season as he converted 38.5 percent of his shots from behind the arc on 5.0 attempts per game.
Let’s take a look at whether Dennis Schroder’s contract demands of a $100-120 million deal this offseason in NBA free agency are realistic.
If we take the 2019-20 season, Schröder has made 35.7 percent of his catch and shoots on 1.8 attempts. Catch and shoots accounted for 54.5 percent of his threes, as he shot 33.3 percent from behind the arc on 3.3 shots per game.
Schröder’s shooting struggles will likely prevent him from getting his asking price because teams who are looking for a pick and roll point guard need that point guard to thrive off the ball as well.
Two teams looking for a pick and roll point guard this off-season are the Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the Chicago Bulls reportedly will pursue Schröder and Lonzo Ball this summer, as they want to upgrade their point guard position.
On the surface, it appears that Schröder would be a perfect fit for the Chicago Bulls as they feature the pick and roll in their offense. The Bulls were 15th in the NBA in pick and roll possessions, averaging 20 possessions per game.
Unfortunately, current Chicago Bulls’ starting point guard, Coby White, only accounted for 28 percent of those possessions as he averaged 5.6 per game. Most of the remaining pick and roll possessions went to the Chicago Bulls’ main star, Zach LaVine, as he accounted for 54 percent of the team’s pick and rolls, averaging 10.8 per game.
Chicago’s decision to give LaVine the majority of the pick and roll possessions led to White spending a significant portion of his minutes off the ball as he took 50.3 percent of his shot from behind the arc, averaging 6.6 per game.
72.7 percent of those threes were catch and shoots as he attempted 4.8 per game. Consequently, it is reasonable to conclude that Schröder will be subjected to the same fate. Unfortunately, as I stated above, he struggles with three-point shooting.
Chicago isn’t the only team that requires their point guard to spend a significant amount of time off the ball, as the New York Knicks are in the same boat. Knicks’ head coach, Tom Thibodeau, runs an offensive system centered around the pick and roll, isolation, and post-ups.
The New York Knicks were 5th in pick and roll possessions, averaging 24 per game. Thibodeau gave 30 percent of those possessions to Derrick Rose as he averaged 7.2 per game. The Knicks complement their pick and roll sets with isolation possessions as they were 5th in the NBA in the category, averaging 9.1 per game.
Julius Randle was responsible for 60.4 percent of those possessions, averaging 5.5 per game. The Knicks complemented pick and rolls and isolations with post-ups as they were 14th in the NBA, averaging 5.1 per game. Thibodeau gave 82.3 percent of those possessions to Randle as he averaged 4.2 per game.
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The New York Knicks’ offense structure forced point guards to spend a significant amount of the minutes as floor spacers, as point guard Derrick Rose took at least 21 percent of the shots from behind the arc, averaging 2.6 attempts per game. At least 61.5 percent of those attempts were catch and shoots, as he averaged 1.6 per game. Consequently, Schröder will once again have to be off the ball, which is an area he struggles in.
Chicago and New York would be better off trading for a point guard like Kemba Walker. Walker has shot 43.2 percent in the pick and roll since 2015 on 8.6 attempts per game. The field goal percentage has contributed to him scoring 10.4 points per game: 46.8 percent of his scoring output.
Walker has complemented his pick and roll skills with success from behind the arc; Walker has converted 38.9 percent of his catch and shoots on 2.7 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 39.1 percent of those attempts, as he has shot 36.7 percent from behind the arc on 6.9 shots per game. More importantly, both teams won’t have to give up a lot of assets to acquire him.
The Thunder typically require opposing teams to give them at least a first-round pick to acquire a veteran like Walker. For example, the OKC Thunder traded Chris Paul to the Phoenix Suns to get a 2022 first-round pick.
Eight months later, they traded Al Horford to the Boston Celtics to get the 16th overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft. Therefore, both teams would only have to give up a future first-round pick and salary filler to acquire Walker, who is scheduled to make $36 million this coming season.
After this season, he has a player option for $37.6 million, which he will likely pick up due to his injury history. As a result, both teams will essentially be on the hook for 73.6 million over the next two seasons. Walker’s contract is much cheaper than what Dennis Schröder is demanding.
In conclusion, Dennis Schröder is unlikely to get his asking price because teams needing a pick and roll point guard would also require him to spend a lot of time off the ball, which is his biggest weakness.