Miami Heat: Kelly Oubre would be an awful fit for them in free agency

The Miami Heat reportedly have Kelly Oubre Jr. on their free-agent wish list this offseason. Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports stated on June 10th that the team is expected to pursue Kelly Oubre in free agency, along with the Knicks and Spurs.

But is Oubre the right fit for the Heat? Not necessarily, as Oubre does a substantial amount of his offensive damage in transition. Kelly Oubre has averaged 2.7 transition possessions since 2015, shooting 55.3 percent from the field on 2.1 attempts per game.

Let’s take a look at why Kelly Oubre would struggle on the Miami Heat if the team were to sign him as a free agent this offseason.

The shooting percentage contributed to him generating 3.1 points per game: 27 percent of his scoring output. Unfortunately, the Heat aren’t known to be a transition team, as they have an average ranking of 23rd in the league since 2015, averaging 14.1 possessions per game.

Oubre is likely to spend more time as a floor spacer in the Miami Heat system, as the team forwards takes most of their shots from behind the arc. For instance, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk, and Trevor Ariza took at least 50 percent of their shots from behind the arc last season, averaging 2.9, 5.7, and 4.8 per game.

Over 85 percent of those threes were catch and shoots, as Iguodala, Olynyk, and Ariza took 2.4, 4.9, and 4 per game, respectively. Some of those catch-and-shoot opportunities came from above the break as Iguodala, Olynyk, and Ariza attempted 1.3, 4.5, and 2.6 per game, respectively.

Unfortunately, Oubre’s biggest weakness is 3-point shooting, as he has only converted 33.2 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.2 attempts per game since 2015. Oubre hasn’t fared any better from above the break. He has only made 34 percent of his above-the-break threes since 2015 on 2.7 attempts per game.

More from Miami Heat

• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Report: Miami Heat hoping to keep key player out of Lillard trade talks
• Grade the Trade: The Heat pass on Lillard to land an MVP in this proposal
• NBA Rumors: Heat have big plans to upgrade frontcourt if they land Lillard

These two factors have led to him shooting 32.6 percent from behind the arc throughout his career on 3.9 attempts per game. Oubre’s 3-point shooting wouldn’t be the only problem with the Heat signing Oubre, as he reportedly wants $20 million a year.

Unless the Heat is willing to commit to playing in transition, it’s not worth it for them to pay $20 million a year for a below-average shooter. Therefore, the Heat should look at other alternatives that are a better fit for them.

For instance, Otto Porter Jr. has converted 41.8 percent of his catch and shoot threes since 2013 on 3 attempts per game. He also thrives from above the break, shooting 39.8 percent on 2.3 attempts per game. These two factors contributed to him shooting 40.2 percent from behind the arc since 2013 on 3.3 shots per game.

If Miami is unable to come to terms with Porter, they could look to the trade market. One option for them could be Harrison Barnes from the Sacramento Kings. Harrison Barnes has converted 37.6 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 3 attempts per game.

He has also excelled on above the break threes, shooting 36.5 percent on 2.4 attempts per game. His success on catch and shoots and from above the break has helped him shoot 37.7 percent from behind the arc on 3.4 shots per game.

Therefore, he would be an excellent option for the Heat. The team could construct a trade package centered around Precious Achiuwa, the 2025 first-round pick, and Andre Iguodala for Barnes.

In conclusion, Kelly Oubre isn’t a fit for the Miami Heat system, considering that forwards are primarily floor spacers. There are plenty of other better options on the market.