Miami Heat: They should pursue other options before Kyle Lowry

There is a prevailing sentiment around the league that the Miami Heat are the frontrunners to sign Kyle Lowry this off-season. Mandela Namaste of Bleacher Report suggested on April 26th that Lowry was going to sign with the team because he is a good culture fit and has an excellent relationship with the team’s star, Jimmy Butler.

But should the team proceed ahead and sign Kyle Lowry? Not necessarily because Lowry is likely to spend the majority of his minutes with the Heat as a floor spacer. The Heat ran an offensive system this past season centered around dribble handoffs and pick and rolls.

Let’s take a look at why the Miami Heat should pursue other options before considering paying Kyle Lowry $25 million per year in free agency

The team was second in the league during the regular season in handoffs, averaging 8.3 per game. Head coach, Erik Spoelstra, gave 42.2 percent of those possessions to starters Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler, as they averaged 3.5 per game. More importantly, starting point guards Kendrick Nunn, and Victor Oladipo only accounted for a minimal 16.9 percent of those possessions, averaging 1.4 and 2.8 possessions per game, respectively.

On the other hand, the Heat were 22nd in pick and roll possessions, averaging 17.9 per game. Butler accounted for 36.9 percent of those possessions as he averaged 6.6 per game. Furthermore, the starting point guards only accounted for a maximum of 20.7 percent of the team’s pick and roll possessions, as Nunn and Oladipo averaged 3.7 and 3.8 possessions, respectively.

Therefore, the Miami Heat starting point guards spent the majority of the minutes off the ball. Kendrick Nunn and Victor Oladipo attempted at least 39.5 percent of their field goals from behind the arc, averaging 5.7 and 4.3 per game, respectively.

At least over 73.7 percent of their threes were via the catch and shoot department as they averaged 4.2 and 4 per game, respectively. They were subjected to these roles, even though 3-point shooting was their biggest weakness.

Kendrick Nunn has been an uneven shooter throughout his short NBA career. He converted 34.7 percent of his catch and shoots during his rookie season on 3.9 attempts per game. Catch and shoots accounted for 67.2 percent of his shots, as he shot 35 percent from behind the arc during his rookie year on 5.8 attempts per game.

Nunn dramatically improved his 3-point shooting in his second season, converting 42.1 percent of his catch and shoots. Catch and shoots propelled him to success from behind the arc, converting 38.1 percent of his threes.

Conversely, Victor Oladipo has made 36.1 percent of his catch and shoots since 2013 on 2.9 attempts. Catch and shoots made up 63 percent of his shots, as he shot 34.7 percent from behind the arc on 4.6 attempts.

Fortunately for Miami, Lowry has the skills to succeed in the role, converting 39.7 percent of his attempts since 2013 on 3.5 shots per game. Catch and shoots are responsible for 50 percent of his attempts, as he shot 38.7 percent from behind the arc on 7.0 attempts per game.

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Although Lowry would be a better option than Nunn or Oladipo, his reported price tag suggests that the team can find a cheaper alternative that can do the same job. Lowry will be reportedly asking for at least $50 million over two seasons in his next contract.

The only way Kyle Lowry is worth this price tag for the Miami Heat is if they allow him to combine his shooting skills with his ball-handling expertise. Lowry has excelled in the pick and roll department since 2015, averaging 5.6 possessions per game. He has shot 42.3 percent from the field on 4 shots per game, creating 5.3 points: 28.6 percent of his scoring output.

If the Heat are insistent on him only being a floor spacer, there are other point guards on the market at a cheaper price who can do the same job. For instance, restricted free agent point guard Devonte’ Graham made 42 percent of his catch and shoots since 2018 on 3.3 attempts per game.

The catch and shoot statistics help propel him to shoot 36.4 percent from behind the arc on 7.2 attempts per game. Another option via free agency could be Patty Mills, as he has converted 39.9 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.2 shots per game since 2013. The statistics have helped him shoot 38.8 percent from behind the arc on 3.3 attempts per game.

If the Miami Heat cannot land a free agent point guard at a more affordable price, they could turn to the trade market. A potential trade candidate for the Heat is Patrick Beverley. Patrick Beverley has made 39.9 percent of his catch and shoots since 2013 on 3.5 attempts per game.

These statistics have been the catalyst behind him shooting 38.2 percent from behind the arc on 4.4 attempts per game. More importantly, Beverley will make $14.3 million next season, $10.7 million less than Lowry’s asking price.

A potential trade package for Patrick Beverley could be Andre Iguodala (pick up his option) and a first-round pick to the Clippers for him. In conclusion, although Lowry is a good option for the Heat, his asking price is way too high for the role he is likely to play on the team.