Miami Heat: Re-Signing Duncan Robinson should not be a top priority

There is a perception around the league that Miami Heat guard, Duncan Robinson, will receive several big offers during free agency this summer. Dan Favale of Bleacher Report predicted on May 2nd that Robinson would get multiple offers worth $80 million over five seasons from the Heat, New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs.

Let’s take a look at why it would benefit the Miami Heat to delay the decision on whether to re-sign restricted free agent Duncan Robinson

Despite the expectation that Robinson will be a hot commodity this summer, the Heat shouldn’t prioritize him. Robinson will be classified as a restricted free agent this summer, and it would behoove them to wait sometime before signing him. In the restricted free agency, teams must submit offer sheets to the players they are pursuing and wait three days to see if the original team will match the offer they submitted.

Signing Duncan Robinson immediately will limit the team’s cap space as they are scheduled to have up to $23.4 million in space if they only keep Robinson’s $4.7 million cap hold on the books. If they sign him to a five-year $80 million contract, that will only leave them with $7.4 million in cap space.

Consequently, they should allow teams to submit offer sheets on August 3rd, knowing that there is a three-day matching period. Miami should use this window to pursue other unrestricted free agents with the 23.4 million dollars they will have in cap space.

For example, the Heat have been interested in acquiring Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors since the trade deadline. Lowry will be a free agent this summer with an expected asking price of $25 million per year over two seasons.

Consequently, the extra cap space gives the Heat a chance to be in the Lowry sweepstakes, as they can give him $21 to 23 million during the first year and give him $27 to 29 million dollars in the second season. If the Miami Heat can sign Kyle Lowry, that will leave them anywhere between $400 thousand to $2 million in cap space.

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They could use that money to sign a low-level free agent at the minimum. After the Heat has used up all their cap space, they have the mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception. The Heat could use the mid-level exception to pursue the players who have the same skill set as Duncan Robinson.

The Heat primarily used Duncan Robinson in the dribble handoffs and as a spot-up shooter. Robinson led the team in dribble handoff possessions last season, averaging 2.7 per game. He accounted for 32.5 percent of the team’s possessions.

Robinson succeeded on these possessions as he shot 38.5 percent from the field on 2.3 attempts per game, creating 2.8 points. Handoffs accounted for 21.4 percent of his scoring output. Robinson was able to combine his dribble handoff skill with catch and shoot success. Robinson made 41.7 percent of his catch and shoots last season on 6.4 attempts per game, creating 8.1 points: 61.8 percent of his scoring output.

There is another player with a similar skillset on the free-agent market who has a higher likelihood of taking the mid-level exception ($9.5 million): Doug McDermott. McDermott has averaged 1.1 dribble handoffs per game since 2015.

He has shot 43.9 percent from the field on handoffs on 1 attempt per game, creating 1.1 points. McDermott has been able to combine his dribble handoff skills with his catch and shoot skills. McDermott has made 41.2 percent of his catch and shoots since 2014 on 2.7 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 84.4 percent of his total attempts, as he shot 40.7 percent from behind the arc on 3.2 shots per game.

Suppose the Heat can acquire Doug McDermott that creates two avenues for them. They could relinquish Robinson’s bird rights which allows him to become an unrestricted free agent. Renouncing Robinson’s bird rights would give the Heat $4.7 extra million in cap space to sign another low-level free agent.

On the other hand, the Miami Heat could still decide to sign Duncan Robinson as an over-the-cap team. In conclusion, waiting to sign Duncan Robinson would give Miami more flexibility this offseason.