NBA predictions: 2020-21 NBA win-totals predictions revisited

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NBA Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

NBA win-total predictions: Close but no cigar Eastern Conference (3-6 wins differential)

Milwaukee Bucks

Predicted wins: 52
Actual wins: 46
Differential: 6

It turns out that the Milwaukee Bucks decided to deviate from their recent history of running roughshod through the NBA during the regular season, only to reach the playoffs and fall short. Maybe they’ll fall short in the end, but after integrating Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and P.J. Tucker, they spent time developing a more versatile defensive strategy than their rote drop coverage from years past. The Bucks had fewer wins, but they may be a much better team this year than years past.

Philadelphia 76ers

Predicted wins: 46
Actual wins: 49
Differential: 3

I thought I was high on the Philadelphia 76ers coming into the season, but even I sold them short. They won three more games than I predicted and took the top seed in the Eastern Conference. We’ll see if Joel Embiid can continue to be available for max minutes on a game-to-game basis, which is going to be necessary for any deep run, but they’ve been a nice surprise so far.

Brooklyn Nets

Predicted wins: 44
Actual wins: 48
Differential: 4

Considering this prediction was made weeks before the James Harden trade, being off by just four wins on the Brooklyn Nets feels like a win. Of course, they were without Kevin Durant for long stretches of the season so, in the end, the Nets ended up mostly being a two-star team, but the top-three in the East ends up being in my close-but-no-cigar category nonetheless.

Boston Celtics

Predicted wins: 40
Actual wins: 36
Differential: 4

It was a season to forget for the Boston Celtics. They were ravaged by COVID, with Jayson Tatum still feeling ill effects from his own experience with the disease. Jaylen Brown missed the end of the season and will miss the playoffs. Kemba Walker has missed plenty of action, and even their trade deadline signature acquisition, Evan Fournier, couldn’t play for a stretch with COVID. They will probably end up getting swiftly blasted out of the NBA playoffs by the Brooklyn Nets, and likely not a moment too soon for this organization’s taste.

Atlanta Hawks

Predicted wins: 35
Actual wins: 41
Differential: 6

I thought I was high on the Atlanta Hawks by giving them 35 wins, but I vastly underestimated Trae Young‘s dangerous team. Once they dropped Lloyd Pierce and transitioned Nate McMillan to interim head coach and got healthy, the Hawks turned out to be one of the best teams in the NBA over the final two months of the season. And on top of it all, they ended up taking Game 1 of the first round off the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Hawks are one of the best feel-good stories of the NBA season.