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NBA predictions: 2020-21 NBA win-totals predictions revisited

By Duncan Smith

May 18, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Justin Holiday (8) and forward Domantas Sabonis (11) congratulate each other the end of the third quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
May 18, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Justin Holiday (8) and forward Domantas Sabonis (11) congratulate each other the end of the third quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Indiana Pacers
NBA Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports /

NBA win-total predictions: On the money Eastern Conference (0-2 wins differential)

Miami Heat

Predicted wins: 41
Actual wins: 40
Differential: 1

The Miami Heat had a grueling run to the NBA Finals last season, and there was sure to be a price to pay. Indeed, they missed plenty of games due to injuries and COVID, and while I don’t take any pleasure in their suffering, we did in fact nail this one on the dot.

Washington Wizards

Predicted wins: 36
Actual wins: 34
Differential: 2

I was low on the Washington Wizards coming into the season, but Russell Westbrook had a fantastic season last year while John Wall missed the entirety. Simply adding Westbrook to a team that didn’t miss the playoffs by a whole lot was an exciting prospect. Sure enough, this team had the internal fortitude to power through incredible adversity and made the NBA play-in and the playoffs proper as a result.

Indiana Pacers

Predicted wins: 34
Actual wins: 34
Differential: 0

I got more teams within that 0-2 win margin than I expected, and I even got a couple of teams right on the dot. The Indiana Pacers are one of those teams, with the prediction of 34 wins and ninth in the East both being accurate. I had no faith in their ability to stay healthy, and teams like the Wizards and the Atlanta Hawks leapfrogged them in the talent upgrade department. Sure enough, that’s how things played out.

Chicago Bulls

Predicted wins: 31
Actual wins: 31
Differential: 0

The Chicago Bulls were another team that I did not feel made enough headway in the offseason to warrant an increase in their stock. Their future may be bright (although they’re down some draft capital thanks to their trade for Nikola Vucevic), but this year a prediction of 31 wins was spot on.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Predicted wins: 22
Actual wins: 22
Differential: 0

You can pretty reliably expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to have a low win-total until proven otherwise. If they don’t have LeBron James, they’re not going to win much. They had a fun start to the season, but these are the Cavs.

Detroit Pistons

Predicted wins: 21
Actual wins: 20
Differential: 1

If there’s one bad team I know, it’s the Detroit Pistons. Of course, this season they lost games by design and as a result, it was actually one of the most successful seasons relative to plans and goals the Pistons have had since prime Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace graced the Palace floor, but we’re happy to see a 20-win total.