Milwaukee Bucks: Targeting Duncan Robinson is the X-Factor vs the Heat

The Milwaukee Bucks have a chance at redemption in the first round in the Eastern Conference playoffs, as they are facing the team that eliminated them last year, the Miami Heat. The Heat won the series in five games after holding Milwaukee to 43.8 percent shooting from the field on 86.2 attempts per game.

These statistics were far below their season average as the Bucks shot 47.6 percent from the field on 90.9 attempts per game during the regular season. But why were these statistics far below their season average?

Let’s take a look at why the Milwaukee Bucks should target Duncan Robinson in their first-round playoff series against the Miami Heat.

The answer is: that the Bucks did not surround Giannis Antetokounmpo with the proper amount of shooters. The Milwaukee Bucks ran an offensive system during the 2019-20 season centered around transition, isolation, and post up possessions.

The Bucks were 2nd in the league in transition possessions, averaging 23.8 per game. They gave 30.7 of those possessions to Antetokounmpo as he averaged 7.3 per game. They were also sixth in isolation possessions averaging 8.4 per game. Antetokounmpo was responsible for 48.8 percent of those possessions as he averaged 4.1 per game.

Lastly, they were fifth in post-up possessions, averaging 7.8 per game. Antetokounmpo accounted for 41 percent of those possessions averaging 3.2 per game. The Bucks offense put the supporting cast in a position where they spent most of the minutes as floor spacers.

For instance, Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, and Khris Middleton took over 30 percent of their shots from behind the arc during that season. They averaged 4.8, 3.5, and 5.7 threes per game, respectively.

Unfortunately, Brook Lopez and Bledsoe are below-average shooters as they made less than 35 percent of their threes. The subpar performance from Bledsoe and Lopez contributed to the team shooting 35.5 percent from behind the arc during the 2019-20 regular season on 38.9 attempts.

Therefore, the Heat decided to put all their energy into stopping Antetokounmpo in the playoffs and leave the rest of his supporting cast open to shoot threes. The Heat went on to build a three-person wall to prevent Antetokounmpo from getting into the paint.

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Consequently, his teammates had wide-open threes all game long as they averaged 27.6 per game, 83.6 percent of total attempts. Sadly, they could not make the shots during the playoffs as Milwaukee shot 32.7 percent from behind the arc versus the Heat on 33 attempts.

The Milwaukee Bucks’ failure to make it out of the Eastern Conference Semifinals put them in a position where they had to do everything in their power to stop Antetokounmpo from leaving, as at the time, he only had one year left on his contract.

Consequently, Bucks’ owner Marc Lasry, met with Giannis Antetokounmpo several times during the off-season. They went on to discuss how the organization can upgrade the roster. After those conversations, the Bucks decided to acquire Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans to show Antetokounmpo that they were trying to upgrade the roster to give him a better chance to win a championship.

The Bucks also tried to acquire Bogdan Bogdanović on the same night they traded for Holiday. Unfortunately, the trade got rescinded about a week later because owner, Marc Lasry, bragged about the acquisition to other teams.

Consequently, another team filed a tampering complaint to the league forcing the trade to be voided. Holiday was a slightly better shooter than their former starting point guard, Bledsoe, as he made 34.8 percent of his threes before arriving in Milwaukee on 4.2 attempts. Jrue Holiday’s three-point shooting statistics were 0.8. percent better than Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe made 34 percent of his threes from 2013-2020 on 4.2 attempts.

Unfortunately, the Milwaukee Bucks are running the same offensive system this season. The Bucks finished first in transition possessions in the regular season averaging 22.1 per game. Antetokounmpo would account for 29.9 percent of those possessions as he averaged 6.6 per game.

They were also fourth in post-up possessions during the regular season as they averaged 7.7 per game. Milwaukee gave 42.9 percent of the possessions to Antetokounmpo as he averaged 3.3 per game. Furthermore, the Bucks were also in the top 5 in isolation possessions as they averaged 9.8 per game. Antetokounmpo was responsible for 45.9 percent of their possessions, averaging 4.5 per game.

Consequently, Holiday was put in a position where he had to be a floor spacer for a significant portion of the team’s games. Holiday took 34.4 percent of his shots from behind the arc during the regular seasons averaging 4.8 per game; he made 39.2 percent of his attempts.

Although Holiday has performed above expectations, the team must be mindful that he can regress to his numbers since 2013. Consequently, it is best if they make alterations to their offensive game plan against the Heat.

Why the Milwaukee Bucks should target Duncan Robinson

The Heat are a team that spends a significant amount of time defending the pick and roll. They defended the pick and roll 11.6 percent of the time during the regular season, averaging 12.5 possessions per game. When they defend the pick and roll, they prefer to switch.

For example, Nunn was assigned to defend Damian Lillard midway through the second quarter of a home game against Portland. Unfortunately, Nunn was forced to switch assignments after Lillard went over a Derrick Jones Jr screen. He guarded Robert Covington for the rest of the possession as Gabe Vincent picked up Lillard.

Switching puts Miami in a vulnerable position because their starting shooting guard, Duncan Robinson, is a below-average defender. He holds opponents to 47.8 percent shooting in the pick and roll on 0.6 attempts per game.

These statistics are the second-highest on the team among rotation players, only behind Kendrick Nunn. Robinson’s pick and roll statistics have contributed to him holding opponents to 48.4 percent shooting on 10.3 attempts per game. Robinson’s 48.4 percent shooting is 2.5 percent above the opponents’ average field goal percentage.

Robinson’s struggles on defense will lead Miami to put him on Milwaukee’s weakest offensive player, Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo was primarily a floor spacer during the regular season as he took 57.2 percent of his shots from behind the arc averaging 5.2 per game. He exceeded expectations converting 37.9 percent of the shots, 6.1 percent better than his first two seasons.

Therefore, Milwaukee should attempt to increase the amount of pick and rolls they run during this series leading the Heat to switch more often. For instance, Milwaukee could send DiVincenzo to be the screener on a pick and roll, forcing Robinson to change onto the ball handler. These actions allow the ball handler to exploit Duncan Robinson’s defensive weaknesses.

Unfortunately, head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn’t like to run a significant amount of pick and rolls as the team was 29th during the regular season in the category averaging 16.5 per game. If Budenholzer doesn’t make this adjustment, he will leave the team in the same position as last year when Miami built a wall and left the other players open to make a three.