Miami Heat: Why Goran Dragic should start over Kendrick Nunn and Victor Oladipo

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra chose to reinsert Kendrick Nunn into the starting lineup and the rotation on April 11th after Victor Oladipo sustained a knee injury midway through the fourth quarter of a game against the Los Angeles Lakers. Spoelstra’s decision has initially paid off as Nunn is averaging 16.3 points and 3.1 assists in Oladipo’s absence, shooting 51.6 percent from the field on 12.2 attempts per game.

Nunn’s recent performances have garnered praise from his teammates as Jimmy Butler told the media on April 25th that Nunn was a true professional who is always ready to play when his name is called:

"That’s what pros do — you stay ready,” Butler said of Nunn. “You know your time’s going to be called sooner or later. I don’t want anyone to get injured, but they happen.” “He has stepped right back into the role he had and he’s performed extremely well for us. He’s learned all the right reads. He’s taking all the right shots."

Why Kendrick Nunn is not a long-term fit for the Miami Heat starting lineup

Although Nunn has initially performed well, can he keep it long-term as the team is currently unsure about Oladipo’s postseason availability? The answer is probably not because of his current role. Miami runs an offensive system centered around dribble handoffs and pick and rolls.

The Heat are currently leading the league in dribble handoff possessions averaging 8.5 per game. Nunn only accounts for less than eighteen percent of the possessions averaging 1.5 per game. Nunn also has a small role in the team’s pick and roll possessions as they are 21st in the league averaging 18.3 per game. Nunn has only been responsible for 20.2 percent of the possessions averaging 3.7 per game.

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Consequently, Nunn has spent most of his minutes off the ball as a floor spacer. Nunn’s role has contributed to him taking 49.5 percent of his shots from behind the arc averaging 5.7 per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 71.9 percent of his threes as he is averaging 4.1 per game.

Nunn has excelled from behind the arc this season, converting 41.4 percent of his catch and shoots attempts. Catch and shoots propelled him to success from behind the arc, converting 38.2 percent of his threes.

However, there is some uncertainty whether Nunn can maintain his performance from behind the arc as he struggled last season. He converted 34.7 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.9 attempts per game. Catch and shoots were responsible for 67.2 percent of his threes as he converted 35 percent of his shots from behind the arc on 5.8 attempts per game.

Who should replace Kendrick Nunn in the Miami Heat starting lineup

Consequently, the team should replace Nunn in the starting lineup with a player who can be a more consistent floor spacer. For example, Goran Dragić has made 38 percent of his catch and shoots since the 2013-14 season on 2.5 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have been responsible for 62.5 percent of his threes as he has shot 36.8 percent from behind the arc on 4 shots per game.

More importantly, Nunn coming off the bench will help him play better as he excels in the role of ball handler. Nunn had a better statistical season last season because he touched the ball 50.9 times per game, a 13.4 percent increase from this season. The touches helped him attack the basket 7.4 times per game, a 14.9 percent increase from this season. Nunn shot 48.8 percent on these drives creating 7 points per game, 26.8 percent of his scoring output.

Even if Oladipo returns before or during the playoffs, Dragić should stay in the starting lineup as he is the better shooter. Oladipo has made 36.1 percent of his catch and shoots since 2013 on 2.9 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 63 percent of his threes as he has shot 34.7 percent from behind the arc on 4.6 shots per game.

In conclusion, the Miami Heat’s offensive system suggests that the team starts Dragić over Nunn/Oladipo as he is a better shooter.