Miami Heat: Victor Oladipo can still get a big contract despite injury history

Miami Heat guard Victor Oladipo suffered a right knee injury as he was landing from making a dunk midway through the fourth quarter of a home game against the Lakers. Ethan Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports stated on April 11th that Miami will consult with a specialist before setting a timetable for Oladipo’s return.

This is the second significant injury that Oladipo has sustained to his right leg over the past two years. Oladipo began to experience right knee soreness during the 2018-19 season as a member of the Indiana Pacers.

He left in the first quarter of a game against the Atlanta Hawks on November 17th, 2018 after feeling some knee discomfort. There was no real update on his injury until nearly two weeks later when ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Oladipo had no structural damage to the knee at the time.

The Pacers were holding out Oladipo because he was getting in better shape to play games. Oladipo returned against the Bucks on December 12th and would play the next 19 straight games. Unfortunately, midway through the second quarter of a home game against the Raptors on January 23rd, 2019, Oladipo fell, chasing Pascal Siakam during a transition possession.

Victor Oladipo had to be stretched off the court and would miss the rest of the game. The Pacers announced the following day that he would miss the rest of the season with a ruptured right quad tendon.

Oladipo’s medical history led Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel to state that he is unlikely to get a big contract next offseason:

"“And this was always Part B of the Victor Oladipo equation, that if for any reason, be it injury or productivity, the Heat still could circle back to utilizing cap space, instead of Victor’s Bird Rights, this summer in free agency,” he wrote. “As it is, it is increasingly unlikely that Victor will get anything near a maximum deal this summer, in terms of annual dollars or even years, from the Heat or elsewhere. Thursday’s injury rekindled plenty of questions that never were far removed from the conversation.”"

Why Miami Heat guard Victor Oladipo can still get a big contract despite his recent injury history

However, it is too early to make this statement because of the NBA’s recent history. Gordon Hayward had an injury-plagued tenure during his three seasons with the Boston Celtics. He sustained a fractured left ankle and leg during the opening night of the 2017-18 season, causing him to miss the rest of the season.

Hayward’s next significant injury would happen on November 9th of 2019, when he broke his left hand colliding with LaMarcus Aldridge. Hayward would be sidelined a month as he returned on December 9th. Hayward would continue to sustain injuries as he suffered a Grade 3 right ankle sprain in August of 2020. He would miss the first two playoff series as he was out for 13 games.

Despite his recent injury history, Indiana was interested in acquiring Hayward from the Celtics after the 2019-20 season via sign and trade. The Pacers wanted him to opt into the final year of his Celtics contract worth $34.2 million. After the Celtics contract was over, they planned to give him $100 million over 4 seasons.

Unfortunately, the teams couldn’t agree on compensation as the Pacers were reportedly offering Myles Turner and Doug McDermott in exchange for Hayward. Boston was asking for Oladipo or T.J. Warren alongside Turner as compensation for taking part in the proposed sign and trade.

Consequently, Hayward opted out and chose to sign with the Charlotte Hornets, who offered him a contract worth $120 million over 4 years. Hayward’s situation should be enough to pump the brakes on the claim that Oladipo is unlikely to get a big contract. If that’s not enough, at least two teams are looking for a playmaking guard; the Bulls and the Knicks.

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Both teams expressed interest in New Orleans Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball at the deadline to run their offenses. Ball is a player that has dealt with significant injuries throughout his career. Ball suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee after bumping into Dennis Smith Jr on January 13th, 2018, causing him to be out almost 6 weeks.

Ball continued to deal with injuries to his left leg during the following season as he sustained an ankle sprain and a torn ligament in his left foot on January 19th of 2019, causing him to miss the rest of the season. As you can see, injuries haven’t deterred teams from pursuing players in recent memory.

Therefore, if Ball signs elsewhere during restricted free agency next offseason, these two organizations could be among the teams pursuing Oladipo. More importantly, Oladipo would be a good stylistic fit for both teams as they have leaned into the pick and roll as their primary offensive set.

The Knicks are currently 3rd in pick and roll possessions averaging 24.1 per game over the first 53 games. On the other hand, the Bulls are 11th in pick and roll possessions averaging 21.9 per game.

Oladipo has thrived as a pick-and-roll ball-handler as a significant portion of Oladipo’s offensive production came from the pick-and-roll before joining the Miami Heat. He averaged 7 possessions per game, shooting 45.2 percent from the field on 3.3 attempts. The shooting percentage contributed to him scoring 5.9 points per game, 31.9 percent of his scoring output.

If these two teams decided to pursue Oladipo, his agent could leverage him against each other to create a bidding war increasingly the likelihood of a more significant contract.  In conclusion, it is too early to say whether Oladipo can get a big contract or not because we don’t know specific organizations’ future situations.