Miami Heat: Assessing their new post-deadline rotation dilemma

To say the 2020-21 NBA season has been an up-and-down experience for the Miami Heat would be an understatement.

After responding to a recent six-game losing streak, the Heat put forth their most consistent sequence of defense for the season to compile four straight wins, and in the process getting them back above .500.

But just when you thought they’d potentially turned the corner, the Heat responded with an uninspiring loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, giving up 124 points on their home floor, which featured 17 triples and 50 points in the paint.

With their newly acquired players intact, the Miami Heat now face the challenge of integrating them in time for the postseason

Just recently, the Heat front office completed some notable renovations to the team in acquiring former All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, and a versatile frontcourt performer in Nemanja Bjelica. With Kelly Olynyk the only major contributor among the four players that departed in these deals, this has provided head coach Erik Spoelstra with additional overall depth. However, this has also presented some challenges as it pertains to formulating a rotation moving forward.

Since arriving with the Heat, Oladipo has immediately been slotted into the starting backcourt, with Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro the primary guards coming off the bench, who have each started 10 and 14 games respectively this season. The other guard in the equation here is Kendrick Nunn, who despite starting on 26 occasions this season, has gone out of the rotation completely since the arrival of Oladipo.

And thus brings the dilemma. Throughout the season, the Heat have rarely used the three-man lineup of Dragic, Herro and Nunn. In fact, they’ve played just 27 minutes together for the season, producing a meager 82.5 offensive rating and an overall minus-4.6 net rating. However, over the past two games, the three-man lineup of Dragic, Herro and Oladipo has already combined for 24 minutes together on the floor.

While it’s just early days, the returns have been far from promising:

Herro – Dragic – Oladipo three-man lineup, per NBA Stats:

• 83.0 offensive rating
• 128.9 defensive rating
• Minus-45.9 net rating

In all, the Heat have shot just 40.5 percent from the floor and 25.0 percent from 3-point range when this trio have shared the floor. One possible explanation for these returns, and why it could present difficulties moving forward, comes down to the respective strengths of this trio.

While each are highly versatile, they are also extremely comfortable at performing with the ball in their hands. To help illustrate this, the following numbers provide a solid explanation:

Percentage of field goals unassisted in 2020-21, per NBA Stats:

• Oladipo: 55.7 percent
• Dragic: 52.6 percent
• Herro: 48.3 percent

Essentially, this is demonstrating how challenging it’s going to be for coach Spoelstra to play this trio together for large minutes, given their adeptness and comfort at scoring on their own volition, and thus not necessarily playing of the ball.

So as the postseason quickly approaches, finding a suitable rotation is certain to be at the top of Spoelstra’s to-do list. Against the Grizzlies, Oladipo played 33 minutes, while Herro and Dragic played 27 and 22 minutes apiece off the bench.

Finding the right mix is going to be critical, with the 21 regular season games an ample amount of time to get this sorted, assuming all players are healthy and available. So while the inconsistencies of the Miami Heat this season have yet to let up, formulating the right rotation come playoff time will likely be the key to success.