Lakers: Quantifying the value of the LeBron James-Anthony Davis duo

It’s not surprising that the Los Angeles Lakers have struggled without LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. While fans of the purple and gold are likely a bit nervous about how far the team might fall in the standings — and the prospect of a challenging 1st-round matchup — any fears are likely quelled by optimism that both James and Davis will be back and healthy by playoff time. While it’s not yet clear whether both superstars will be full throttle by this point, this optimism doesn’t seem entirely unfounded.

When healthy, both James and Davis are arguably top-five players in the league. While the Brooklyn Nets have overtaken Los Angeles as the title favorites (per betting markets), there’s a reason that despite the injuries, the Lakers are still a close No. 2.

Just how important have James and Davis have been for the Los Angeles Lakers this season? Have any other duos across the league been comparably valuable?

There are countless ways to evaluate the “value” of a player or in this case a duo. One has to look no further than the annual debates over who deserves various MVP awards. While it’s an imperfect measure, net rating can provide some worthwhile insight. This metric can illustrate how many points a duo outscores opponents per 100 possessions when they are on the court. While this is a good first step, comparing the team’s performance with the duo ON the floor with its performance OFF the floor is arguably the better way to evaluate things. The duo with the largest differential could also make a case for being the most valuable.

There are 347 duos in the NBA this season that have played at least 500 minutes together (per NBA.com). Of this 347, 12 have a net rating greater than or equal to +13.5.

While the presence of some of the above duos is probably not surprising (LeBron James/Anthony Davis & Kawhi Leonard/Paul George), others are likely more so (Chris Paul/Cam Johnson & Jordan Clarkson/Georges Niang).

Per net rating, the top duo in the NBA is Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles from the Utah Jazz. In fact, five of the twelve duos are from Utah, which makes some sense given the Jazz have the best net rating of any team in the NBA. Given how well Utah has performed as a whole, however, it’s difficult to assess how valuable any of these individual duos are. When almost every Jazz lineup is outscoring opponents by notable margins, almost every Jazz duo is going to look impressive statistically.

While Gobert and Ingles can claim the “best duo” crown based purely on net rating, which duo has the largest differential in their team’s performance when they are on and off the floor? By this measure, Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs come out on top. The Spurs have a +16.0 net rating in the 529 with both players on the floor and a -22.2 rating in the 202 minutes with both off the floor.

While this differential is notable and impressive, there is definitely an issue when it comes to sample size. San Antonio might genuinely be a significantly worse team with Mills and Murray on the bench, but a -22.2 rating is a bit too ugly to take seriously. For reference, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the worst net rating in the NBA this season at ~7.5 — nowhere near -22.2. Furthermore, 202 minutes is the fewest “off-court” minutes of any of the 12 duos, and it’s probably not enough to assess the pair’s true value to their team.

Perhaps an adjustment is warranted. There are seven duos that have played at least 500 minutes together, had a net rating greater than or equal to +13.6, AND had their teams play at least 500 minutes without both players on the floor.

Per differential, the NBA’s top three duos are Kawhi Leonard-Paul George, Mike Conley-Rudy Gobert and LeBron James-Anthony Davis. Given how well each of their teams have performed this season, it’s notable that each has been outscored with these players off the floor.

Utah Jazz: 1st in net rating (+8.5)

LA Clippers: 4th (+6.1)

Los Angeles Lakers: 7th (+4.7)

So who deserves the title of “most valuable duo”? Well, if it’s a regular season award — like the MVP is often qualified as — then I think one of Leonard-George or Conley-Gobert is the way to go. The Leonard/George pair has the top differential of the seven, while Conley and Gobert represent the NBA’s top team per both record and net rating.

In the playoffs, however, I don’t think there’s any duo more capable of leading a team to a championship than LeBron James-Anthony Davis (assuming they’re healthy). Their performance last postseason, culminating in a Lakers championship, speaks for itself.

(Credit to NBA.com and pbpstats for statistics — data as of 3.30.21)