The Miami Heat have reportedly added another name to the list of power forwards they are trying to acquire before the trade deadline on March 25th. Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com stated last week that Miami is one of the teams expressing interest in trading for Cavaliers’ power forward Larry Nance Jr.
But does Nance make sense for the Heat? Yes and no. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has installed an offensive system based on dribble handoffs and pick and rolls.
Miami has been at the top of the league in dribble handoffs over the first 36 games averaging 9.9 per game. 57.6 percent of those possessions have gone to Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic as they have combined to average 5.7 per game.
On the other hand, Miami is in the middle of the pack when it comes to pick and rolls as they are currently ranked 16th in the league averaging 19.6 possessions per game. Spoelstra has allowed Butler and Dragić to take 74 percent of those possessions averaging 14.5 per game.
How Larry Nance Jr. would fit into the Miami Heat offense
Spoelstra’s system has put power forwards in a position where they spend most of their minutes as floor spacers. For example, early in the first quarter of a road game against the New York Knicks, Kelly Olynyk stood on the right-wing as Butler was starting a pick and roll sequence with Bam Adebayo on the other side of the court. Unfortunately, Butler ran into issues as soon as he went over the Adebayo screen because Mitchell Robinson was waiting for him on the other side of the screen.
Robinson’s presence led Butler to freeze and pick up his dribble, giving the original defender Elfrid Payton enough time to get over the screen and be in a position to defend Butler. Butler chose not to dribble the basketball again and decided to pass to Olynyk, who made the open three on the right-wing.
The usage of power forwards in Spoelstra’s system has led Andre Iguodala and Olynyk to take more than 67 percent of their shots from behind the arc averaging 3.3 and 5.7 per game, respectively.
Catch and shoots account for at least 84 percent of those attempts as they have averaged 2.8 and 4.9 per game. A significant portion of their attempts has come from above the break, as Iguodala and Olynyk are averaging 1.6 and 4.5 per game, respectively.
Fortunately for Miami, Nance has turned himself into a passable outside shooter during his time in Cleveland because of a position change. Nance told Chris Fedor in October of 2019 that he didn’t prioritize shooting 3-pointers before the arrival of former head coach John Beilein.
Nance spent most of his minutes near the basket being physical with other big men as previous head coaches used him as a center. Consequently, Nance only took 10 percent of his shots from behind the arc as he averaged 0.6 per game over his first four seasons.
Upon arrival, Beilein told Nance he was going to switch positions from center to power forward for the 2019-20 season. Beilein’s decision was the catalyst behind Nance’s choice to work on his outside shot as he took about 20,000 3-pointers during the 2019 offseason.
Nance’s off-season work didn’t go to waste as he has taken 38.5 percent of his shots from behind the arc averaging 3 per game since 2019. At least 83 percent of those attempts have been either catch and shoots or from above the break.
Nance has made 37 percent of his catch and shoot threes since 2019 on 2.7 attempts per game. He also has made 34 percent of his above-the-break threes on 2.5 shots per game. The combination of these factors has led him to shoot 36 percent from behind the arc.
How Larry Nance Jr. would fit into the Miami Heat defense
Unfortunately, Nance is unlikely to be a positive for the team defensively as he hasn’t gotten a lot of reps defending the pick and roll ball handler throughout his career. Nance has only defended the pick and roll ball handler for an average of 0.52 possessions per game.
Nance will see an uptick in defensive possessions against the pick and roll ball handler as they have defended the pick and roll ball handler 12.4 percent of the time this season, averaging 13.7 possessions per game in the first 36 outings. The Heat are holding pick and roll ball handlers to 45 percent shooting on 9.8 attempts.
More importantly, backup power forward Iguodala has accounted for 11.7 percent of those possessions averaging 1.6 per game. Iguodala is currently holding pick and roll ball handlers to 43.8 percent shooting on 0.9 shots per game.
With the information at hand, would you be in favor of the Miami Heat acquiring Nance at the NBA trade deadline?