Miami Heat guard Avery Bradley is hopeful that he is close to returning from the strained right calf sustained on February 4th. Bradley told the media on February 9th that he wanted to return before the All-Star break:
"I hope I can get some games under my belt before the break. But like I said, my main focus is making sure I’m smart about this injury so there’s no more setbacks, so I can come back 100 percent.”"
But what should his role be upon return? Bradley should be in the starting lineup due to his shooting abilities. Head coach Erik Spoelstra runs an offensive system based on dribble handoffs and pick and rolls.
The Heat have led the league in dribble handoff possessions in the first 33 games averaging 10.3 per game. Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic have accounted for 59.2 percent of the possessions averaging 6.1 per game. On the other hand, the Heat are 16th in pick and roll possessions averaging 19.8 per game. Goran Dragic and Butler are responsible for 75.2 percent of those possessions averaging 14.9 per game.
Why the Miami Heat should start Avery Bradley over Kendrick Nunn
Miami’s system forces the other players to spend a significant amount of time as floor spacers. For example, starting point guard Kendrick Nunn stood in the right corner midway through the first quarter of a road game against the Thunder. He stayed there until Kelly Olynyk passed the basketball to shoot a 3-pointer which he missed.
Nunn’s role has contributed to him taking 48.3 perćent of his shots from behind the arc as he averaged 5.6 per game over his first 25 outings this season. Catch and shoots accounted for half those attempts as he averaged 3.9 per game. Nunn has performed in the role this season he has made 40.2 percent of his catch and shoots. The success on catch and shoots has helped him shoot 37.9 percent from behind the arc this season.
Unfortunately, it is unclear whether Nunn can maintain the level of performance as he made 34.7 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.9 attempts last season. Catch and shoots accounted for 67.2 percent of his total attempts as he shot 35 percent from behind the arc on 5.8 attempts per game.
Bradley is better suited to thrive as a floor spacer due to more consistency as he has converted 38.3 percent of his catch and shoot field goals since the 2013-14 season on 3.5 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have been responsible for 81.4 percent of the shots as he has a shooting percentage of 36.8 percent on 4.3 per game.
More importantly, Bradley would be a better defensive fit for the Heat as they have defended the pick and roll 12.4 percent of the time this season, averaging 13.7 possessions per game in the first 33 outings. The Heat are holding pick and roll ball handlers to 45.9 percent shooting on 9.9 attempts without Bradley for 69.7 percent of the season as he has only played in 10 games.
Bradley’s return should substantially improve those numbers as he has held pick and roll ball handlers to 39 percent shooting since the 2015-16 season on 2.7 attempts per game. Bradley’s statistics have been 7.2 percent better than Nunn as he has held pick and roll ball handlers to 46.2 percent shooting since last season on 2.6 attempts per game.
In conclusion, the Miami Heat’s offensive and defensive system indicates that Bradley should be in the starting lineup over Nunn upon return from injury.