Los Angeles Lakers: Is LeBron James the MVP so far?

While the Los Angeles Lakers are focused on winning a 2nd-consecutive NBA title, LeBron James might have another trophy in mind as well. James is among the top contenders in what is shaping up to be an ultra-competitive MVP race. Per several NBA analysts and betting sites, James is in the pole position — although only a slight favorite — as the first half of the season comes to a close. A 5th MVP would break James’s tie with Wilt Chamberlain and make him one of only three players with at least five (Michael Jordan and Bill Russell (5) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6)).

It’s impossible to predict how the season will play out moving forward. Looking at each contender’s performance thus far, however, one can reasonably argue which player deserves the MVP award so far. Given that LeBron 1) arguably deserves more than the four MVPs he’s already won, 2) is generally regarded as the best player in the sport and 3) is playing at a very high level in his 18th season, LeBron may very well have the “narrative” on his side. This doesn’t mean he’s the most deserving, however.

There are a lot of worthy contenders for this year’s MVP award. How does LeBron stack up so far, and what does he need to do to win it?

Below are the top ten MVP candidates (per Action Network consensus odds as of Feb. 28th). Given that these odds are intended to reflect who is most likely to win the award, they should theoretically provide some insight into who has been most deserving thus far.

LeBron James: +198

Joel Embiid: +300

Nikola Jokic: +500

Luka Doncic: +851

Steph Curry: +1,169

Kevin Durant: +1,373

Giannis Antetokounmpo: +1,600

Damian Lillard: +2,223

James Harden: +3,143

Kawhi Leonard: +3,300

In terms of evaluating each player’s performance, it can be helpful to compare their team’s net rating with them on the court and with them off the court. The larger the differential, the more value the player is seemingly providing. How do the top contenders fare in this metric?

Six of the top ten MVP contenders have an “on/off differential” greater than 10.0: LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard. LeBron, Leonard and Embiid fared the best, but Embiid is the true standout — with a differential well ahead of the pack.

There are several other advanced metrics that can also be used to evaluate players. None is perfect, but when pooled together, they can provide some insight into who’s been “most valuable” this season. Do any of the players impress more than the others? The below chart includes the following statistics: Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Win Shares (WS), Box Plus/Minus (BPM), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM).

What jumps out? Jokic comes out on top in PER, WS, BPM and VORP (6th in RPM). Embiid has an impressive profile as well, coming in 2nd in each of PER, WS and BPM, 6th in VORP and 4th in RPM. LeBron has the best RPM, but came in last in PER, 8th in WS, 6th in BPM and 4th in VORP.

Overall, it looks like a 3-man race: James, Embiid and Jokic. Embiid and Jokic fare well in each of betting odds, on/off differential and advanced statistics. LeBron fares well in the first two, and while his advanced numbers don’t compare super favorably with Embiid and Jokic, he still belongs in the top tier of the discussion. Furthermore, while several other players have impressive “advanced resumes”, none have enough to make the trio a quartet.

What else can one use to evaluate the MVP discussion? While the advanced numbers are helpful, some “old-fashioned” measures are worth considering as well: games played, team record and “basic” stats.

Unsurprisingly, every player has an impressive basic statistical profile, but what else stands out? Of the LeBron, Embiid, Jokic trio, James has the best combination of game played (all 34) and team record (23-11 – 2nd in Western Conference). While the Philadelphia 76ers are 1st in the East, Embiid has missed six games. While Jokic hasn’t missed a game, the Denver Nuggets are only 7th in the West.

One could reasonably argue that team record shouldn’t factor much into the discussion, but one could also argue that games played doesn’t get discussed enough. The best ability is availability, right? When they are playing, each player is averaging comparable minutes per game (34.8 for LeBron, 33.0 for Embiid and 35.8 for Jokic).

Conclusion:

Based purely on advanced statistical measures, Embiid and Jokic look like the two most deserving MVP candidates, with LeBron a close third. When games played and team record are factored in, however, I’d argue James pulls roughly even with the duo. Moving forward, LeBron likely won’t be able to catch Embiid and Jokic in most of the advanced statistics, but he’s capable of maintaining an edge in these other areas.

If he keeps playing every game and the Lakers remain around the top of the West, LeBron should have a really solid MVP case. He’s already the odds-on favorite, so it’s arguably his race to lose.

(Credit to NBA.com, pbpstats and basketball-reference for statistics)