The Miami Heat entered Wednesday night’s game following two straight losses. The opponent who threatened to extend the streak was the Golden State Warriors, who were missing their starting and backup centers as well as their starting power forward. The Heat went up by 19 points right before halftime, never allowed Golden State to lead for 48 minutes, and still lost in overtime.
The Warriors simply outworked Miami down the stretch of the fourth quarter and in overtime. Their energy propelled them to a come-from-behind win while the Heat sputtered and played uninspired. It’s a microcosm of the Heat’s season overall.
After a shockingly successful 2019-20 season that made all their doubters look like clowns, the Heat have trended in the exact opposite way in the 2020-21 campaign. They’re on the doorstep of a bottom-five record in the league. If the season ended right now, they wouldn’t qualify for the play-in. They no longer seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, which defined them in their Cinderella run to the Finals.
The fiery, intense Miami Heat squad that ran through the 2020 playoffs has vanished. Their 2021 season is on the brink of disaster.
Injuries and absences due to COVID-19 protocols certainly took a toll on the Heat. The team had to play with only eight players on two occasions, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro each missed an extended amount of time, Goran Dragic is currently on the mend and the team has used an exorbitant 16 different starting lineups so far.
But to squarely blame them for the problems Miami has is just making excuses and deflecting the important conversation: that the Heat are simply not playing good basketball right now.
The Heat’s offense hummed all of last season, shooting the second-best percentage from beyond the arc and tying for the seventh-best offensive rating in the league. This season, the Heat’s 3-point percentage ranks 24th and their offensive rating ranks 26th. Their offense that once drove very smoothly now drives like a lemon.
Herro’s 3-point percentage has dipped to below league average. Dragic’s has dipped, too, along with Kendrick Nunn’s. Kelly Olynyk takes three more triples per game than he did last season while his percentage has dropped from 40.6 percent to 34.3 percent. Duncan Robinson has regressed from an incredible shooter to just a pretty good one.
There’s less cohesion and more turnovers – 16.5 per game, more than every team. Miami strays away from shots they’re the best at. They convert a league-best 70.4 percent of their shots in the restricted area but they only take 21.8 shots per game in that area, which ranks 27th.
On the flip side, the Heat’s defense has been pretty solid, holding opponents to 44.9 percent shooting from the field, which ties for fourth in the league with the Los Angeles Lakers, the best defensive team in the league. The Heat’s defensive rating ranks top-10 in the league. But because the offense has been so bad and the energy has been so absent, it hasn’t meant much.
Miami is one of eight teams with a net rating worse than -3.0. Their play is less robust and their sense of urgency is waning, which is a reason why they’ve blown leads all season long. Last season, they could lock in and take care of business. That trait hasn’t been as prevalent. Whether it’s a sign of fatigue due to their tiny offseason or a flaw covered up by the nature of the bubble, it’s something that needs to be addressed.
Heat have lost games this season after leading by 19, 18, 13, 13 and 11.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) February 18, 2021
It’s obvious that Miami needs to make moves. They missed out on James Harden, and by the looks of how he’s performing in Brooklyn alongside two other All-Stars, Miami missed out on a great chance to improve.
There aren’t any stars on the trade block for the time being. Miami’s best chance of improving is to pry Bradley Beal away from the Washington Wizards or pursue the Chicago Bulls’ Zach LaVine. Miami could acquire Victor Oladipo for a cheap price since his contract is about to expire but he hasn’t looked like the star player he once was, so it’s unclear how much help he would provide.
Trading for another supporting piece wouldn’t help matters. This Heat team needs some serious help. Making a trade like they did at last year’s deadline won’t cut it. Miami needs to make a serious splash if they want to turn this season around.
The Heat may still make the playoffs but their chances at returning to the Finals are toast, if not burned entirely and crumbling to ash. What would a simple first-round appearance mean to the defending conference champions?
In order to truly salvage this season, Miami would need to borrow the magic that the 2016-17 Heat had. Once upon a few years ago, the Heat posted a record of 11-30 to start the season. They flipped that record right around in the second half of the season, finishing just short of the playoffs. Still, it was an impressive feat that showed the squad’s grit and strong mentality.
The 2020-21 Heat will need to pull off something similar if they want to make the follow-up to their Finals run somewhat meaningful.