Chicago Bulls: Would Lonzo Ball be a good fit for the team?

In what is now his fourth season in the NBA, Lonzo Ball has found his place as a solid starting point guard.

Sure, that doesn’t sound glamorous considering that Ball was a former second overall pick and all the hype that surrounded him when he entered the league, but the former UCLA Bruin has navigated all of that well while avoiding the dreaded “bust” label.

This season, Ball has become a boon for the New Orleans Pelicans. Even though his per-game totals don’t jump off the page (13.7 points, 4.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds), his skills as a tertiary playmaker, floor spacer, and defender have made him a valuable part of that team.

Apparently, other teams have taken notice of this value, including the Chicago Bulls. Going by a report from Action Network’s Matt Moore, the Bulls want Ball if a trade happens, and according to Ball — through his agent Rich Paul — the feeling is mutual.

But, if he gets traded, would Ball be as helpful to the Bulls as he was for the Pelicans?

Lonzo Ball brings plenty to the table as a point guard.

While their 12-15 record isn’t as abhorrent as the many trade rumors surrounding the team suggest it is, the fact still remains that the Pelicans haven’t taken the jump up the standings that some thought they would.

You could point to a number of reasons why that is, but Ball hasn’t been one of them. Going by the on/off stats, New Orleans is a significantly better team when Ball is on the floor; their net rating goes from -4.5 to +3.5 when Ball is in the lineup.

Individual plus/minus metrics like him, too. Among point guards, Ball ranks sixth in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus statistic, trailing the likes of Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry. Now, that obviously doesn’t mean that Ball is as good as those players (certainly not Curry); this merely illustrates how well he fits next to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson as a supplementary piece.

Other, more reliable metrics like RAPTOR (1.2) and, particularly, Estimated Plus Minus (1.3) also evaluate Ball as a net-positive, though much of that value has surprisingly come on the offensive end.

Just about every advanced defensive stat discerns Ball as negligible at best on that end of the floor. Looking at Ball’s play, however, indicates that those rankings may be a bit unfair.

The primary issue seems to rest with his pick-and-roll defense, where he ranks in the 40th percentile with a 0.94 opponent’s points per possession (PPP).

To be fair, Ball is asked to defend in those situations quite a bit and he’s usually tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best player or primary ball-handler, players more apt to take and make more difficult shots.

As such, it’s tough to tell how much of Ball’s struggles are results-based and not the outcome of a bad process.

Take the play below, for example. Ball does a good job of staying close to Ja Morant following the stagger screens (not an easy task); Morant just does a better job of shielding Ball away from the ball before dropping this floater in.

Is that play really that much worse than this one, where he stays attached to Luka Doncic but instead sends back Doncic’s floater (worth noting his 1.7 percent block rate here)?

He’s worse on spot-ups (1.19 PPP; 23rd percentile) which is more alarming since on isos (he’s also terrible there, but the sample size is too small) and ball screens, you can at least hope that a help defender can bail you out.

But, again, does this look like someone who struggles to make the correct rotations?

Sure, there are occasions where he takes a poor angle on a screen or closes out on a player too late (you know you’ve messed up when BRANDON INGRAM is pushing you into the direction of the shooter), but for every one of those plays, you’ll see as many of him being alert and disruptive.

Plus, he adds value with his ability to generate turnovers. Per Dunks & Threes, Ball ranks in the 79th percentile in steal rate, as his 6’9″ wingspan and propensity to jump passing lanes like an All-Pro NFL cornerback makes him a threat to grab takeaways, though sometimes he’s prone to gamble too often.

As for Ball’s offense, a great deal of his effectiveness comes as a floor spacer. Ball scores 1.11 points per possession in spot-up situations, placing him in the 65th percentile, and much of that can be attributed to him ditching that “I challenge you to a duel in the Old West” shooting motion for a smoother, more easily repeatable style.

Given what we saw from Ball last year — 37.5 percent from 3-point range — this wasn’t a surprise, but his success in the pick and roll has been. Ranking in the 65th percentile in pick-and-roll PPP (0.95), Ball has brought some unexpected value as a ball-handler, though at only 3.1 possessions per game, it’s safe to assume that those numbers would drop with higher usage.

And of course, everyone knows what Ball’s best offensive trait is:

Yes, a lot of his skills as a distributor are dulled a bit by his tepid mid-range shooting (39 percent; 36th percentile) and finishing at the rim (57 percent; 36th percentile), but he’s smart enough to pounce on any openings the defense creates for him (21 percent assist rate; 80th percentile).

So, could he fit in with this Chicago team?

In Billy Donovan’s first year as the Bulls head coach, the team has shown a level of competence that seemed impossible under Jim Boylen, specifically on the offensive end. Still, the Bulls are in need of a natural point guard who has some on and off-ball value, and while there are plenty of better candidates than Ball, they can do a lot worse.

With Zach LaVine emerging as a legitimate All-Star and Coby White making strides as a facilitator (23 percent assist rate; 84th percentile), having another player who can take advantage of a scrambled defense with his shooting and passing will push their respective development even further.

Plus, Ball being able to run the pick and roll in short spurts would alleviate some of LaVine and White’s offensive load. Him leading the way on fast breaks off of misses and turnovers would help there, too.

Most importantly, the Bulls could use someone with his defensive reputation. Yes, many of his metrics don’t look great on defense, but on a team that has gotten so few positive contributions on that end, adding a smart, rangy defender who can generate turnovers and turn them into easy offense isn’t a possibility you outright dismiss.

So with all that said, is Ball the answer to all of Chicago’s problems on offense and defense? Well, no, but he checks enough boxes on both sides to make a trade for him worth it.