Miami Heat: The Pros and Cons of a Kyle Lowry trade

There is a perception around the league that the Miami Heat will be one of the favorites to land Kyle Lowry if Toronto puts him on the trading block. One Eastern Conference told Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report that Miami makes sense as a landing spot for Lowry due to their playing style and title aspirations.

The Pros of a Kyle Lowry trade for the Miami Heat

Although the Eastern Conference official believes that Lowry and the Heat are a perfect match for each other, let’s look at how he would fit into their offense. Head coach Erik Spoelstra runs an offensive system centered around dribble handoffs and pick and rolls.

The Heat have led the league in dribble handoff possessions in the first 25 games averaging 10.8 per game. Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic have accounted for 61.1 percent of the possessions averaging 6.6 per game. On the other hand, the Heat are 20th in pick and roll possessions averaging 18.8 per game. Goran Dragic and Butler are responsible for 70.7 percent of those possessions averaging 13.3 per game.

Miami’s system has forced the rest of the rotation to become floor spacers. For example, Avery Bradley and Kendrick Nunn have taken at least 45 percent of their shots from behind the arc averaging 3.8 and 5.1 per game, respectively. More than 70 percent of those attempts were catch and shoots as they are averaging 3.7 and 3.6 per game, respectively.

Consequently, Lowry should spend a significant amount of his minutes off the ball as a floor spacer. Fortunately for the Heat, Lowry has the skills to thrive as a floor spacer. Lowry has converted 38.8 percent of his catch and shoots since the 2013-14 season on 3.5 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 50 percent of his threes as he has made 37.6 percent of his field goals from behind the arc on 7 attempts per game.

Lowry can also slide into the role of ball handler/playmaker when one of the perimeter players rest on the bench or doesn’t play. Lowry has been a passable pick and roll ball handler over the 5+ seasons. He has shot 43.1 percent from the field on 4 attempts per game. The shooting percentage helped him generate 5.2 points in 5.5 possessions per game, 28 percent of his scoring output.

The Cons of a Kyle Lowry trade for the Miami Heat

Unfortunately for Miami, Lowry’s asking price is expected to be high as we approach the deadline. John Hollinger of the Athletic stated in November that Toronto could get Gary Harris, Will Barton, and draft picks from Denver in exchange for Kyle Lowry. If he is correct, Miami would have to include one of their top three young assets and salary filler to match Denver’s hypothetical offense.

For example, they would have to offer Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk, and a draft pick to acquire Lowry from Toronto. Miami’s hypothetical offer would reduce their roster depth, which they have leaned on to avoid game postponements this season.

Avery Bradley, Bam Adebayo, Butler, Dragic, and Herro have all missed at least two games this season due to health and safety protocols or injuries. Miami’s roster availability issues have forced Spoelstra to give Gable Vincent, KZ Okpala, and Max Strus significant minutes on certain nights. For instance, Strus played 25.1 minutes on February 11th against Houston as Herro was unavailable due to health and safety protocols.

More importantly, the trade would hurt the organization long term as they have been looking to acquire another star to put alongside Adebayo and Butler. If the organization wants to acquire another star, they need to hold on to all of their top assets.

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Miami would likely include Herro, Duncan Robinson, or Precious Achiuwa, and a 2025 first-rounder in any blockbuster deal. Based on the information given, should the Miami Heat pull the trigger on a Lowry trade?