Los Angeles Lakers: Is their hot 3-point shooting sustainable?

Is the Los Angeles Lakers’ 3-point shooting sustainable? Here are some reasons for optimism.

Although some 3-point regression is probably to be expected from James, Caldwell-Pope, Caruso and Kuzma, there are some Lakers shooters that could reasonably maintain — if not improve — their long-range shooting going forward.

For example, Wesley Matthews is hitting 36.4 percent of his threes after hitting 36.4 percent a year ago (career 38.1 percent shooter). Anthony Davis is shooting 33.0 percent after making 33.0 percent last season and 38.0 in the playoffs. Markieff Morris is only at 30.6 percent after hitting 38.6 percent with the Lakers and Detroit Pistons last season (career 34.4 percent shooter).

Lastly, Dennis Schroder is performing notably worse from downtown compared to 2019-20. He’s down almost 10 percentage points — from 38.5 percent to 29.6 percent. Most of this decline has been driven by a worse performance on catch-and-shoot attempts. After shooting only 26.8 percent on pull-up threes last season, Schroder is actually shooting 31.6 percent this season. On catch-and-shoot looks, however, the guard is only hitting 28.6 percent — compared to 41.4 percent last season. His catch-and-shoot numbers are likely to improve going forward. Schroder might not be the 38.5 percent shooter he was last season, but he should at least be near his career mark of 33.5 percent.

Conclusion

So what should Lakers fans expect from the team’s 3-point shooting going forward. As discussed, some players will almost surely see a dip in their long-range efficiency. While this might be partially offset by an improvement from some other shooters, it likely won’t be enough to maintain the team’s 38.7 percent mark. Three of the players for whom regression is to be expected — James, Caldwell-Pope and Kuzma — also happen to be the team’s three highest-volume shooters. Still, after the team shot 34.9 percent from downtown in 2019-20, it seems reasonable to expect the team to shoot better than this mark in 2020-21 (perhaps as high as 36 or 37 percent).

(Credit to NBA.com and basketball-reference for statistics)