Los Angeles Lakers: Is their hot 3-point shooting sustainable?

Is the Los Angeles Lakers’ 3-point shooting sustainable? Here are some reasons to expect regression.

Below are the team’s highest volume 3-point shooters, along with their long-range efficiency (and attempts per game) both this season and last.

LeBron James: 41.3 percent (6.8 attempts per game), 34.8 percent (6.3 attempts per game) last season

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 47.8 percent (3.9), 38.5 percent, (3.5)

Kyle Kuzma: 38.3 percent (4.5), 31.6 percent (4.5)

Dennis Schroder: 29.6 percent (3.4), 38.5 percent (5.0)

Wesley Matthews: 36.4 percent (3.2), 36.4 percent (4.4)

Anthony Davis: 33.3 percent (2.7), 33.0 percent (3.5)

Markieff Morris: 30.6 percent (2.6), 38.6 percent (3.9)

Alex Caruso: 52.8 percent (2.3), 33.3 percent (1.9)

What jumps out? LeBron James is shooting a career-best 41.3 percent from downtown on a career-high 6.8 attempts per contest. James has generally improved as a shooter over his 18 seasons, but some regression is to be expected moving forward. He’s a 34.5 percent career 3-point shooter and has only shot better than 38 percent in one season (40.6 percent in 2012-13).

Last season, only four players finished the year at LeBron’s current marks of 41.3 percent on 6.5 attempts per game. There have been even fewer in seasons prior.

2019-20: Bojan Bogdanovic, Davis Bertans, JJ Redick and Duncan Robinson

2018-19: Steph Curry, Buddy Hield

2017-18: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick

LeBron is also making 1.5 pull-up threes per game on 43.2 percent shooting. Only one player has finished with marks at least this good over the past seven seasons (Steph Curry). More reason to expect some 3-point regression from the King.

2015-16: Steph Curry (2.8, 43.8 percent)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope might be the best shooter on the team, but it is quite unlikely that he will be able to sustain his current level of shooting. Among players that have appeared in at least 15 games and averaged at least one made 3-pointer, Caldwell-Pope is No. 2 in 3-point percentage For reference, among players that appeared in at least 50 games and averaged at least one made three last season, George Hill posted the top mark at 46.0 percent. Suffice to say, some regression is to be expected from KCP.

If Caldwell-Pope is No.2, guess who is No. 1 so far this season? Yep, Alex Caruso. Although the 26-year-old seems to legitimately have improved as a shooter (has a good chance of finishing better than last season’s 33.3 percent), his current efficiency is clearly unsustainable. Caruso is hitting a ridiculous 53.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes.

After shooting 36.6 percent from downtown as a rookie, Kyle Kuzma finished at only 30.3 percent and 31.6 percent the last two seasons. Is the 38.3 percent he is currently at a sustainable number? Maybe, but it’s worth noting that Kuzma is making 1.6 catch-and-shoot threes per game on 42.3 percent shooting — a level that only 13 players finished at last season. Is Kuzma this good of a shooter? Probably not, so a bit of regression is probably to be expected. Perhaps he can finish in roughly the 35 percent range overall, however.

There are also some 3-point shooting statistics from the team as a whole that suggest some 3-point regression is quite likely. The Lakers are shooting a 10th-best 41.1 percent on “6+ feet – wide open” threes. The top two teams last season shot 42.2 and 41.1 percent on these looks.

Additionally, the offense is shooting a fifth-best 42.5 percent on corner threes. The top two teams last season shot 42.7 and 41.8 percent on these attempts. Lastly, the offense has made an NBA-best 39.4 percent of its pull-up threes (largely thanks to LeBron James). The top two teams last season made 36.2 and 35.9 percent of these attempts. Again, some regression seems likely.