Chicago Bulls: Lauri Markkanen might be onto something

Through three years in the NBA, Lauri Markkanen’s perception has always been tied to who he was supposed to be.

As the headline return in the Jimmy Butler trade, he was expected to prove worthy of being dealt for a perennial All-Star. As an athletic seven-foot shooter from overseas, many believed Markkanen would follow in the footsteps of Kristaps Porzingis, a contemporary with comparable traits who developed into an All-Star by Year 3.

A similar leap never came for Markkanen. He actually regressed in his third year with his scoring, rebounding and efficiency all taking a hit last season. Nobody seemed to enjoy playing for Jim Boylen. For Markkanen, the absence of joy manifested into a poor showing riddled with injuries just as he needed the opposite to secure an extension.

The Chicago Bulls’ most recent two games offer a sizeable glimpse into what has quietly been a bounce-back type of season for Lauri Markkanen.

Under new head coach Billy Donovan, things have changed for the Chicago Bulls as a whole. An underwhelming 8-11 record still represents a mini two-game improvement from the same time a season ago. An offense filled with capable scorers has shot up from the 29th spot last year to 15th so far this season. And Markkanen is putting forth a resurgent season one year later than expected.

Through the quarter mark of the 2020-21 season, Markkanen is averaging 20.5 points per game on a ridiculously efficient shooting line of .518/.413/.850. Just four players averaging at least 30.0 minutes a night are exceeding Markkanen’s true shooting percentage of 66.3. Only Joel Embiid is doing so with a higher usage rate.

“I wasn’t here last year,” Donovan said when asked to explain Markkanen’s improved play.

Donovan deserves credit for simplifying the game for his young forward. More of Markkanen’s field goals are coming without a dribble and his spot-up attempts have increased by 1.2 a night, where he ranks in the 80th percentile compared to 47th last year.

When the majority of what you’re asked to do is stand or flash to the arc and hit threes, making them is a lot easier with a mind not bogged down with other responsibilities.

The Blazers and Knicks got quite the taste of that over Chicago’s last two outings, where Markkanen scored a combined 61 points in the two games while draining 12 of his 23 3-point attempts. Why hesitate at all when the shots are falling with elite regularity?

There has also been improved off-ball awareness from Markkanen, who ranks inside the 90th percentile on cuts with increased per-game volume. He fills empty space and, whether it’s size or speed, typically has some type of mismatch on his opponent that allows him to take advantage.

“I’m trying to be active, just being off-the-ball active too,” Markkanen said after a win over the Knicks. “Giving myself up on a cut that might get someone else an open shot if I just go to the hoop hard even when I don’t have the ball.”

Markkanen is in the midst of a career-best season, but he’s yet to cross 70 games in any of his three seasons (he wouldn’t have in a full 2019-20 season). He’s one of the tallest players in the league who, despite playing center more than ever, is posting a career-worst block rate this season.

It’s hard not to picture that baggage figuring into contract numbers when he enters restricted free agency this summer, from the Bulls or any team, though the only games Markkanen has missed so far this season were due to health protocols.

He might never become the idealized version of Porzingis, but KP himself is undergoing a similar transformation that absolves him of having to create most of his looks. Maybe players of their archetype are best when limited.

That won’t slow the willingness of teams to take a swing on a player of his size with 3-point range. And by becoming the leading seven-foot marksman with some additional means of scoring, Markannen has taken the early steps to make a potential commitment far less of a gamble.