Did the Houston Rockets get fleeced in the James Harden trade?

James Harden is finally on the move and will join the already-powerful Brooklyn Nets. But did the Houston Rockets get a fair shake in the deal?

The Brooklyn Nets finally pulled the trigger on a trade for James Harden on Wednesday afternoon. After a couple of months of rumblings and rumors, the embattled superstar finally received his wish of being shipped out of town as the Houston Rockets and the Nets completed what would end up being a four-team trade.

There are plenty of moving parts in this deal. The Cavaliers made out well, and the Pacers have been applauded for their portion of the bounty. The Nets, of course, obtained the best player and centerpiece in Harden in their chase for a championship. But the team that received the most pieces, potentially eleven in all, was the Rockets. The list includes an All-Star in Victor Oladipo along with a couple of throw-in players, but the real eye-catcher is the seven first-round draft picks and swaps (plus an unprotected 20222 Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick) that Brooklyn is handing over to the Rockets.

All that glitters may not be gold.

If Harden doesn’t work out for the Nets, then both their immediate and long-term futures will be in serious peril. They have given up essentially all of their draft capital for the better part of the next decade, and their financial situation will be a hellish one. But they are instantly one of the championship favorites as long as they have their Big 3 of Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Harden healthy and coherent.

But could the Rockets could have gotten more? The list of seven first-round picks certainly looks like a treasure trove upon first glance, a hefty bundle that should keep Houston young and full of potential for years to come. More likely than not, most of those are going to be late-round picks or won’t convey at all. Here’s the full list:

2021: 1st round swap
2022: 1st rounder (BKN) + 1st rounder (MIL)
2023: 1st round swap
2024: 1st rounder (BKN)
2025: 1st round swap
2026: 1st rounder (BKN)
2027: 1st round pick swap

For at least the first three seasons, the Nets should be one of the best teams in the entire league. The Houston Rockets will be lucky to get two serviceable bodies, much less any contributors from the first four picks on the list.  Unless Houston finishes with a better record than Brooklyn this season, then the 2021 pick swap will go unused. The next season, both Brooklyn and Milwaukee should compete for Eastern Conference superiority, pushing Houston’s picks down towards the very end of the first round. The year after, another swap likely to go unused.

Two years after Harden’s departure, it is entirely possible that the Rockets have just one regular contributor as compensation. That might even be generous.

The future of the Rockets beyond 2023 truly depends on the future of the Nets. If Brooklyn is able to remain a championship contender well into the middle of the decade, then the Rockets might get nothing more than three picks in the 25-30 range from the Nets when all is said and done.

As for the players in the package? Not even close to making up the difference in the value for Harden. The two throw-ins will likely be throw-outs, and Oladipo is in the final year of his contract and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

The only chance that the Houston Rockets have of winning this trade (or even making it fair) is if the Nets were to fall apart completely and start landing in the top 5 of the lottery. There is an outside chance of this happening towards the back end of the decade, but certainly isn’t something that Houston should count on.

Of course, Houston will benefit from the trade payroll wise. Harden is owed massive amounts of money on the tail end of his current deal, and the Rockets now have some wiggle room financially despite the ugly John Wall contact that remains on the books. But no matter how disgruntled the superstar, losing one of the most profiling scorers in NBA history for essentially a salary dump is a questionable move, at best. Don’t be surprised if the final return ends up being two rotational players and 60 games of Victor Oladipo.

Not a great haul for an MVP from a team that is desperate for future assets.