The Denver Nuggets have vastly underperformed, which has forced Nikola Jokic into an extreme solo act that might wind up doing more harm than good.
This isn’t how the start of the 2020-21 season was expected to play out for the Denver Nuggets, who, despite holding a double-digit lead, sit just 3-5 following a 124-117 overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night.
A run to the Western Conference Finals was supposed to springboard an underappreciated bunch into a new hierarchy of legitimacy. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have carried over their offensive breakouts from the bubble, but the departure of Jerami Grant has done more harm at the defensive end than expected.
Denver was never elite at preventing points, but the fall from last season to the early stages of this one have been glaring with its best stopper now in Detroit. After ranking 16th in defensive efficiency last season, the Nuggets have fallen to 28th. Scanning the roster, it’s hard to determine the plus defenders among that group. Things aren’t exactly going smoothly at that end when the only answer might be a 35-year-old Paul Millsap.
The Nuggets have thankfully had no issues producing points, with only the Milwaukee Bucks trotting out a more efficient offense. MPJ is 0.5 points away from rounding out a trio of 20-point scorers along with Murray and Nikola Jokic. Four others are exceeding double figures. Denver is fourth in both points per game and field goal percentage.
This level of offensive proficiency is hardly a surprise. Jokic has been the engine to an offense that’s finished no lower than seventh in efficiency over the last four seasons. He is their leading scorer and assist man, the hub through which everyone fills up the scoring column. But to compensate for a crumpled defense, the Nuggets are asking him to power them like never before, with the results as mesmerizing as they are deeply concerning from a long-term standpoint.
Jokic’s minutes are up to a career-high 36.5 a night due partially to another former teammate now a member of the Pistons, former back-up center Mason Plumlee. He already led the league in touches per game last season with 97.2, but the added playing time has bumped that number up to 108.1, also tops in the league as one of only two players to cross 100 — Domantas Sabonis being the other.
He’s holding and dribbling the ball more. His passes have gone up because he’s creating more looks for his teammates than ever before. Jokic assists on just under half of Denver’s baskets when he’s on the floor — — for reference, his previous career-high in assist percentage was 37.0 percent in 2018-19 — and those are just the makes. His potential assists have skyrocketed (11.1 to 16.0), a top-five mark behind only some of the league’s elite floor generals. The next closest non-guard is LeBron James six spots below at 13.8.
It is remarkable the role Jokic has assumed as a lumbering seven-foot point-center and the stats certainly don’t have those contributions coming in vain. Jokic’s numbers are up to a whopping 25.9 points (66.3 true shooting percentage), 11.6 rebounds and 10.9 assists a game. Should his current Player Efficiency Rating of 30.0 holds for the remainder of the season, Jokic would become the 25th player to ever reach or exceed the 30 mark. You can guess the kind of company he’d be joining.
Before you start compiling a Westbrook-like MVP argument for a player on a team that wouldn’t even be slated for the play-in tournament right now, consider the ramifications that would grow more apparent as the season progresses and how that might affect Denver’s chances to make up ground in the standings.
The Nuggets have one of the youngest rosters in the NBA with Millsap the only 10+ year veteran. Jokic himself is only 25 years old turning 26 on Feb. 19. They should have plenty in the tank to push hard for as high a playoff seed as possible.
Remember, though, a spot in the 2020 conference finals meant that only three teams had a shorter offseason than Denver’s 87-day layoff. That rapid turnaround shouldn’t affect a 22-year old Porter with less than 80 total games under his belt or Will Barton after he failed to make an appearance in the bubble. But smart superstars like LeBron James know to scale back their efforts in preparation for the stretch run into the playoffs, not take on added responsibilities.
Considering the offensive struggles of some around them, similarly young stars like Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic don’t have the luxury of any form of energy conservation, not with Kemba Walker and Kristaps Porzingis on the mend. But maybe the biggest takeaway from Denver’s bubble run was the emergence of those like Murray and Porter who could alleviate some of the immense pressure Jokic had to dictate the entirety of the Nuggets’ offense. So why is the burden he shoulders trending in the opposite direction?
Teams tend to lean on their superstars in times of crisis. Denver’s not hitting any panic buttons less than 10 games into the season but the west isn’t very forgiving to a slow start that puts them one game away from the conference’s cellar.
More of the Nuggets’ questions center around their defensive efforts than their ability to score in vast bunches. Who knows if there’s even a chance to avoid the perceived inevitability of those struggles.
To ensure the offense remains as potent long enough for the defense to try and find that middle ground to propel this team back on track, Denver may have to get more from its leader by asking him to do less.