Toronto Raptors: Detailing the early struggles of Pascal Siakam

The Toronto Raptors have gotten off to a sluggish 1-4 start, in large part due to Pascal Siakam’s early-season struggles.

It took the Toronto Raptors four games to notch their first victory of the season as they sit in last place of the division with a 1-4 record. It’s the worst start to a season for the franchise since they opened up the 2012-13 season with an 0-2 start and an identical record through the first five games. That was also the last time the Raptors finished the regular season with a sub .500 record. While it isn’t just one person’s fault, Pascal Siakam‘s struggles on offense so far have played a major role in the team’s abysmal start.

Siakam’s struggles date back to the Orlando bubble where he averaged 16.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, down from the 23.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game he averaged before the NBA shut down in March. His efficiency to a big hit as well, posting shooting splits of .459/.359/.800 pre-bubble and .394/.356/.714 in the bubble.

In his first season as the explicit number one option for the Raptors, Siakam did not disappoint. He led the team in scoring with 22.9 points per game and was second on the team in rebounds (7.3) and blocks (0.9) per game last season. Everything has gone downhill for Siakam this season, and he has looked like a shell of the player who signed a $130 million contract extension in the offseason.

With Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka’s departures, Pascal Siakam was asked to take on a larger role defensively. It hasn’t worked out well so far for the Cameroonian power forward. Thus far, he has a 116.2 defensive rating through four appearances, by far the worst mark of his career. Luckily for Toronto, that hasn’t affected the team defense too much, with them sitting firmly in the top-five with a 104.3 team defensive rating.

Though it hasn’t worked out well for him, the extra effort and attention he’s giving on defense could help explain the drop-off in production on offense. Last season he enjoyed an offensive rating of 111.8, while this year, his offensive rating has plummeted to a career-low 99.7. He’s gotten himself into plenty of foul trouble to start the season. After fouling out of just two games last season, Siakam has already fouled out twice this season and is averaging a career-high 4.5 fouls per game.

This directly correlates to his fall in usage rate from last season (dropped from 27.8 last season to 24.5), although he’s still averaging identical minutes per game. As a result, his averages have dropped considerably from 22.9 to 16.5 points per game. Most notably, his efficiency has taken a hit. Despite attempting approximately two fewer shots per game and virtually the same amount of 3-pointers, his shooting splits have sputtered from .453/.359/.792 to .394/.280/.875.

Shot selection also is a key component contributing to Siakam’s early-season woes. In his first four outings, 42.5 percent of his shot attempts have been contested, and he’s only converted 29.4 percent to date, compared to the 48.4 percent he shot on contested shots last season. He’s not getting to the charity stripe nearly as much as he did last season either. He’s averaging just two free throw attempts per game after averaging 5.1 attempts per game last year.

While he’s converting a respectable 66.7 percent of his attempts within three feet of the rim, only 27.7 percent of his shots are coming from the restricted area, and the further he steps away from the basket, the more his percentages drop. There’s also a drop in his conversion rate of catch-and-shoot jumpers, connecting on just 30 percent of his attempts thus far compared to 37.6 percent last year.

His 47.5 percent true shooting percentage is by far a career-worst for Siakam and ranks 160th out of the 184 starters who average at least 20 minutes per game and have played in at least four games.

Per Synergy, Siakam is in the 1st percentile in transition offense with an atrocious 0.571 points per possession(PPP), 39th percentile in spot-up situations, and the 16th percentile in overall offense with .786 PPP last season.

It’s only four games, so there’s still room for hope when you look back at last season’s numbers. He rated in the 64th percentile (1.174 PPP) in transition and the 57th percentile in both spot-up situations and overall offense (0.991 PPP).

He said he needed to find his joy and start having fun playing basketball again while in the bubble, and he has reiterated those sentiments early this season. While that may be a factor with these being trying and troubling times for everyone worldwide, that’s no excuse for the steep decline in productivity from the new face of the franchise. To make matters worse, Siakam was benched for Toronto’s lone win of the season due to internal disciplinary reasons.

The Toronto Raptors are in last place in the Atlantic division, and only the Detroit Pistons (1-5) trail them in the Eastern Conference standings. Owners of the second-worst offensive rating in the league (101.8), they desperately need Pascal Siakam to step up his play and return to form if they are to return to title contention.