The Minnesota Timberwolves’ system is broken, and here’s how to fix it

The Minnesota Timberwolves have faced serious problems in this era

So Minnesota struggled to perform in the 2019-2020 season. However, there was one small glimmer of hope: the new recruits. At the trade deadline, Minnesota had swept in and completed a major overhaul of their roster. In that last month or so before the hiatus hit, Minnesota bumped up their shooting and became top-10 in 3-point percentage while remaining third in attempts per game. Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, James Johnson, these guys were all looking amazing. And surely, once Karl-Anthony Towns recovered from his injury and could play with D’Angelo Russell, Minnesota would show signs of life at the end of the season, right?

Well, kind of. Towns and Russell didn’t play much due to injuries, but in their last 14 games of the 2019-2020 season Minnesota won just four. A big problem with Minnesota switching to an analytics-heavy style of basketball is it took away an option the Timberwolves were quietly killing in: the mid-range game. In 2017-18, Minnesota was second in the league in 2-point field goal attempts, 12th in 2-point percentage, second in the league in percentage of points from 2-point range, and seventh in the league in percentage of points from mid-range. With a strong inside game and a great mid-range guy in Jimmy Butler, Minnesota made the playoffs that season.

Now, with the analytics game all but eliminating the mid-range option, Minnesota is left with two choices: drive or shoot a 3. This style has also removed any sense of ball movement, as 41.8 percent of the Timberwolves’ field goals this season have been unassisted. The better teams that rank above them in this category–the Utah Jazz, the Dallas Mavericks, the Memphis Grizzlies, etc.–all have a lights-out shooter like Donovan Mitchell, Luka Doncic, and Ja Morant. Minnesota doesn’t have that, at least, not yet.

And there’s the biggest issue. The problem with Minnesota trying to play a Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors-style game is that the Timberwolves don’t have a James Harden or a Stephen Curry. A heavy 3-point focus with a lot of drives and kicks worked for those teams because Harden and Curry are almost guaranteed baskets who don’t need a lot of time to heat up, and when opponent’s double-teamed or collapsed on those guys, they had great catch-and-shoot options like Klay Thompson or (to a much lesser extent) Eric Gordon to back them up.

The best guy Minnesota has in the 3-point bucket slot is D’Angelo Russell, who’s currently shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range. Not terrible, but not Harden level either. For instance, Harden shot 33.7 percent from 3 with a defender 2-4 feet in front of him last season. This season, D’Angelo Russel has shot 20.0 percent with the same conditions. In 2018-19, Steph’s last full season, he shot 37.2 percent with those conditions.

The best catch-and-shoot option they have when Russell has the ball is Malik Beasley, who is streaky at the best of times, and shoots just 29.4 percent on catch-and-shoot 3’s, which is somehow better than his season average 25.0 percent 3-point percentage. By comparison, last season Eric Gordon was a 28.9 percent 3-point catch-and-shoot guy, and in 2018-19 Thompson was a 40.5 percent 3-point catch-and-shooter.

Injuries can be used to excuse some of the woes that Minnesota has experienced, but that’s kind of the point. Fans would argue that losing Towns and Josh Okogie hurt the system, but if your team’s system crumbles when one player gets hurt, then it’s a bad system. So what can Minnesota do to fix it?