Milwaukee Bucks: Does Giannis need to change to win a title?

Taking a look at whether Giannis Antetokounmpo needs to change his game to win a championship with the Milwaukee Bucks this season and beyond.

There is a growing sentiment around the league that the Milwaukee Bucks are hurting their championship aspirations by using Giannis Antetokounmpo as the primary ball-handler. Grant Hughes of Bleacher Report wrote an article on Dec. 23 stating that Milwaukee will have a hard time winning important games with their current offense.

He believes that Antetokounmpo is over-relying on trying to run over opposing defenders when he attacks the basket which makes it easier to stop the team. But is Antetokounmpo’s mindset the real culprit behind Milwaukee’s playoff shortcomings? No, as Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer insists on putting the wrong supporting cast around Antetokounmpo when he is on the court.

The Bucks ran an offensive system centered around isolation, post-up and transition possessions over the past two seasons. They have been top-five in the league in transition possessions averaging 25.8 per game. Antetokounmpo accounted for 29.4 percent of those possessions, averaging 7.6 per game.

Conversely, the team has been in the top ten in the league in isolation possessions averaging 9.0 per game. Antetokounmpo is responsible for 44.4 percent of those possessions averaging 4.0 per game. Milwaukee was also tenth in post-up possessions averaging 7.8 per game. They allowed Antetokounmpo to take 52.6 percent of those possessions, averaging 4.1 per game.

Antetokounmpo’s involvement in Milwaukee’s offense has forced his teammates to play off the ball. When they are off the ball, his teammates are usually floor spacers as the team has only cut to the basket 6.1 times per game.

Consequently, Antetokounmpo’s teammates have taken almost one-third of their field goals from behind the arc. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton have averaged 4.3 and 6.0 threes per game, respectively, from 2018-19 to 2019-20, more than 30 percent of their total field goal attempts.

Unfortunately, Budenholzer insists on playing Antetokounmpo with at least one below-average shooter. Antetokounmpo was on the floor with Bledsoe for 21.6 minutes per game from 2018-19 to 2019-20. Bledsoe shot 33.7 percent from behind the arc before Buddenholzer’s arrival on 2.9 attempts per game.

Defenders can therefore ignore Bledsoe when he is on the court as 97.6 percent of his threes were uncontested because he took four open attempts per game. Bledsoe’s shooting struggles contributed to Antetokounmpo taking 10.4 contested shots per game from 2018-19 to 2019-20, 56.2 percent of his total field goal attempts.

Milwaukee is experiencing the same issues this season as Donte DiVincenzo is in the starting lineup with Antetokounmpo. They have shared the court for 21.2 minutes per game during the first two games. Consequently, DiVincenzo has taken 4.5 threes per game during his first two outings, 47.4 percent of his field-goal attempts.

Although DiVincenzo has made 66.7 percent of his threes over the first two games, his track record suggests he will struggle for the rest of the season. DiVincenzo has shot 32.7 percent from behind the arc on 3.6 attempts per game in two-plus seasons per game.

The shooting issues have led defenders to leave him open as 95.4 percent of his threes were uncontested as he is averaging 3.4 open attempts per game. It has played a vital role in Antetokounmpo, averaging 10.0 contested shots over the first two games, 50.0 percent of his total field goal attempts.

Milwaukee would be better off starting Bryn Forbes, who shoots 40.0 percent from behind the arc on 4.1 attempts per game. Forbes’ conversion rate led defenders to stay closer to him as only 77.0 percent of his threes were open attempts. Forbes would lessen the likelihood that Antetokounmpo takes a contested shot.

If Budenholzer insists on using Antetokounmpo as the primary playmaker, he needs to surround him with shooters at all times to maintain the proper floor spacing. It should allow Antetokounmpo to get better field goal attempts throughout the season, giving the organization a real opportunity to win a championship.