NBA predictions 2020-21: Our individual award winners and Finals picks

MVP

Hoops Habit pick: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

By far the polling’s largest deficit, Luka Doncic ran away with the MVP prediction tallies, accumulating 83 percent of all votes. The only other player who received votes was Damian Lillard, which goes to show how deep some of my colleagues dove to avoid having the standard “the MVP is Luka’s to lose” take.

If anything, this need to grasp at straws should also illuminate how likely it is for Luka to win MVP this season.

My pick: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Here’s a take for you:

Luka Doncic is the best 21-year-old basketball player of all-time. Yeah, I said it. I’ll repeat it, too.

Luka Doncic is the best 21-year-old basketball player of all-time.

Last season – a season in which Doncic eclipsed America’s legal drinking age in late February – Luka averaged 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists in a shade under 34 minutes per game. He was third in the NBA in PER, boasting an impressive 27.65 player efficiency rating (behind Giannis’ astronomical 31.94 and James Harden’s 29.11).

To put these numbers in relation to his age in context, LeBron James averaged 27.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists in upwards of 42 minutes per game at a similar period (second season, age 21) of his professional career. Granted, Luka’s PER last season was roughly two points higher than James’ in 2004-05 and the modern NBA is much faster paced than the NBA in which James was drafted into, but the numbers remain staggering nonetheless.

Doncic also has plenty of room to improve, which is a mind-blowing prospect. Shockingly, Luka made only 31.6 percent of his 3-point attempts and 46.3 percent of his total attempts. Now with a better supporting cast, an offseason of honing his game, and a lingering taste of playoff defeat fueling his fire, it would surprise no one to see Luka’s game substantially improved.

There is a world in which Doncic averages a 30-point triple-double for the season, leading his team to a top-three seed in the Western Conference. If this happens, Luka is a mortal lock to win his first of many MVP trophies, and I will become a mortal lock to foolishly spend $2,500 on a Luka Doncic rookie card.

Sleeper pick: Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

Perhaps an overreaction, but following the Brooklyn Nets’ dominant debut of the Golden State Warriors, the Nets made one thing abundantly clear: They will score a ton of points, which will more than likely lead to them winning a ton of games. And in a new system comprised of fragments of the seven-seconds-or-less Suns with Steve Nash at the head coaching helm, Kevin Durant will almost certainly be the largest benefactor.

Already flaunting the experiences of a dynamic offensive on his mantle, Durant has a fundamental understanding of how to operate within a great system. Kyrie Irving is sensational in his own right, but with Durant’s truly absurd offensive versatility, Durant will be the Nets’ go-to mercenary. I’m also not so sure there has ever been a better “five seconds on the clock, we need a bucket right now” insurance policy than a 7-footer who can dribble like a point guard and pull-up from 30 feet whenever he pleases. Durant will more than likely lead the Nets in scoring, and the Nets will more than likely lead the entire NBA in scoring.

All in all, it is a perfect recipe for KD’s success.

The continuously harped on narrative factor is also heavily in Durant’s favor. A former MVP coming off of a brutal Achilles injury, Durant can realistically reacclimate himself to the NBA by leading his new team to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and winning a scoring title (provided that the Nets are not blowing the majority of opponents out by the end of the third quarter). If the Nets dominate early in the 2020-21 campaign and Durant shows promising signs of checking such boxes, it will be a two-way race between Durant and Luka Doncic until the very end of the regular season.

The only foreseeable issue in KD’s MVP odds is Kyrie Irving’s presence, which is paradoxical in and of itself. Irving can create so much offense for Durant since doubling KD will become that much more challenging with Kyrie on the floor, but sharing the floor with a volume shooter like Kyrie will substantially hinder Durant’s opportunities. Their back-and-forth may prove to be a real dilemma as far as Durant winning the MVP goes, as the trophy always ends up in the hands of the de facto first option on their respective team. We all know Durant is the number one in Brooklyn, but does Kyrie know that? I have my doubts.

This sleeper pick is no longer that sleepy, but at +1000 odds, KD is a great bet to make given how high the Nets’ ceiling is and how sorely the NBA has missed Durant’s unbelievable talents.