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NBA predictions 2020-21: Our individual award winners and Finals picks

By Craig Cochran

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 22: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after receiving his 2020 NBA championship ring during a ceremony before the opening night game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on December 22, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 22: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after receiving his 2020 NBA championship ring during a ceremony before the opening night game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on December 22, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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NBA (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
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Defensive Player of the Year

Hoops Habit pick: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

In a pretty significant showing, my colleagues at Hoops Habit chose Anthony Davis as their Defensive Player of the Year prediction. Bringing in 50 percent of the total votes, Davis came in second last season behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. This time around, Giannis brought in one-sixth of our total votes for most likely to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, followed by Rudy Gobert and Ben Simmons rounding out our list of possibilities.

My pick: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

It’s weird, isn’t it? For as dominant as Giannis Antetokounmpo was on the defensive end of the floor last season, the former DPOY and back-to-back MVP received very little love from my colleagues in this category. To be clear, if I were to craft a defensive unit of my own, Giannis would be my number one selection. Who doesn’t want a guy that can nightmarishly defend one-through-five? But in this iteration of predictions, Anthony Davis is my odds-on favorite to come away with the award.

Related Story. Lakers: 3 big questions going into the season. light

As another player who can defend one-through-five (granted, not at the absurd levels that Antetokounmpo can), Anthony Davis is arguably the most imposing defender in the league. A premium defender coming straight out of college, Davis has somehow, at least from an optics standpoint, improved in this category during each season of his professional career. Now, as the anchor of a team that will more than likely dominate the Western Conference in even more emphatic fashion than they did last season, Davis will lead a roster that is already going to be a nightmare to outscore. When one also considers that the Defensive Player of the Year award is frequently passed from elite defender to elite defender (i.e., Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, and Kawhi Leonard from 2014 to 2019), it appears as though it is Davis’ turn to bring home the trophy.

It also significantly helps when one’s team as a collective unit is stout on the defensive end of the floor, and the Lakers appear to have the right pieces in place to replicate their strong defensive numbers from last season. Davis’ +250 odds might not be the sexiest to place a wager on, but his incredible defensive IQ, his lateral quickness, his versatility, and his rim protection all warrant those odds being so high.

Sleeper: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

This one is fascinating. At +1500, Ben Simmons’ odds are in that beautiful sweet spot where betting on him and winning will attribute to your best bet of the year, and betting on him and losing will not kill you because the odds are unfavorable enough to where you will probably* not take out a second mortgage on your home.

*If this is the case, I implore you to seek gambling help at 1-800-522-4700

The buzz on Simmons’ improved defense has picked up significant steam over the last year and a half, thus quickly categorizing the long, versatile wing with the Kawhi Leonard’s of the NBA. Though individually a less lockdown version of Kawhi, Simmons’ explosiveness and instincts are what make him such a terrorizing threat on the defensive side of the ball.

Last season, Simmons led the NBA in steals and steals per game, was second in total deflections, third in deflections per game, third in steal percentage, seventh in defensive box plus/minus, and 13th in defensive win shares. His numbers are great, the eye-test is unequivocally in his favor, and the Sixers are on track to become a top defensive team with Doc Rivers now operating the 76ers’ sinking ship.

The primary consideration that bodes poorly for Simmons is that, of the last 20 winners of the Defensive Player of the Year award, 16 are conventional ‘big men.’ The only wings who have won the prestigious award since the year 2000 are Ron Artest (2003-04), Kawhi Leonard (2014-15, 2015-16), and Draymond Green (2016-17), and Green is hardly a pure wing given his predilection to match up with the opposing teams’ big men.

Simmons also has Joel Embiid behind him to clog the paint. When Embiid exerts even a semblance of energy – energy in which Doc Rivers surely hopes to maximize this season – he is a force to be reckoned with on defense. As previously alluded to, big men will typically receive the leading share of defensive notoriety, thus making Simmons’ odds all the more unlikely.

Still, at +1500, this wager might be interesting to roll the proverbial dice.