Toronto Raptors: 3 bold predictions for the 2020-21 season
1. OG Anunoby breaks out for a career year
The Toronto Raptors have not drafted in the lottery for quite some time. In 2016 they used a pick from the Denver Nuggets (via the New York Knicks) to take Jakob Poeltl at ninth overall, but otherwise have had to build a roster from trades and later picks. They have done just that, building a championship roster that includes players they took 46th (Norman Powell), 27th (Pascal Siakam) or were undrafted entirely (Fred VanVleet).
Next up in the Toronto chain of development is OG Anunoby, the 23rd pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. The 6’7″ wing out of Indiana University fell in the draft due to injury concerns, but when he has played for the Raptors he has been one of the league’s very best defensive players, and perhaps its best one-on-one wing defender. He boasts the length and size to guard the larger combo forwards such as Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant, but has the foot speed to stay with faster wings such as Paul George or Jaylen Brown.
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The next step in Anunoby’s progression will be on the offensive end. The new center rotation is even more low-usage than last year’s, and as Kyle Lowry grows older this team needs a player to step up as an offensive option. Anunoby has had his moments — none larger than his game-winning buzzer beater against the Boston Celtics in last year’s postseason — but hasn’t yet brought everything together.
Anunoby’s usage rate has hovered around his career average every year thus far, about 14 percent. That is very low for a wing, and last year it ranked above only Marc Gasol among rotation players. If he can push that above 20 percent while not losing his efficiency (.600 true shooting percentage, first among starters last year) or defensive impact, the Raptors’ floor and ceiling go up.
The prediction here is that he does. A usage rate around 21 and similar efficiency should have Anunoby up around per-game averages of 17 points and three made 3-pointers per game. That not only will get Anunoby a few fringe All-Star votes, but it will lessen the burden on this team’s other stars and increase the Raptors’ win total.