Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro is currently projected to start at guard this season, but here’s why the team would be better off starting Avery Bradley instead.
There is a perception around the league that Miami Heat guard Avery Bradley will begin the season as a part of the team’s second unit. Mo Dakhil of Bleacher Report projected earlier this month that Tyler Herro would start over Bradley because of how well he performed in the NBA bubble.
Miami appears to agree with Dakhil’s projection as Herro started the first two preseason games. But is coming off the bench the right role for Bradley? No, he should be in the starting lineup.
Bradley has thrived as a floor spacer over the past seven seasons, converting 37.5 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 3.4 attempts per game. The field goal percentage helped him generate 3.8 points per game, 29 percent of his scoring output.
Catch and shoots are responsible for 65 percent of his threes. Bradley has shot 36.7 percent from behind the arc on 4.4 attempts per game in the past seven seasons. The conversion rate allowed Bradley to produce 4.8 points per game. The three-point production has accounted for 35.8 of his scoring output as he averaged 13.4 points per game.
Bradley’s shooting ability makes him an ideal fit to start as Miami’s starters spent a significant amount of time as floor spacers. Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, and Kendrick Nunn took at least 42.8 percent of their field goals from behind the arc last season, attempting 8.3, 6.4, and 5.8 per game, respectively.
More importantly, catch and shoots accounted for more than 65.0 percent of their 3-pointers. Crowder, Nunn, and Robinson took 4.2, 3.9, and 6.8 catch and shoot threes per game, respectively, last season.
The only player that can give Miami more production as a floor spacer is current projected starter Herro, as he made 44.2 percent of his catch and shoot threes on three attempts per game. However, Herro has been involved in multiple trade rumors since he entered the league.
Tyler Herro may be a trade candidate for the Miami Heat
The team is currently inclined to include Herro in potential trades for Bradley Beal or James Harden. Consequently, Miami needs to showcase Herro’s offensive repertoire this season to maintain or elevate his trade value.
For example, he scored a career-high 36 points vs. Oklahoma City in the bubble partly due to him getting 76 touches, 70.8 percent higher than his season average. The touches helped him attack the basket eight times, 40.3 percent more than his season average. He shot 40 percent from the field on five attempts creating six points, 20 percent of his scoring output.
Herro also made both of his catch and shoot threes, producing six points from those field goals. Catch and shoot attempts accounted for 33.3 percent of his threes as he made 50 percent of the field goals on six shots, creating nine points for the team.
Herro will have a more challenging time showing off his skills in the starting lineup due to the presence of Jimmy Butler. Butler became more one dimensional as he converted 33.7 percent of his shots outside of the restricted area on eight attempts per game, a 2.2 percent decrease from the 2018-19 season.
Consequently, a significant portion of Butler’s production came near the basket. Butler shot 63.9 percent from the field on five attempts per game within the restricted area creating 6.4 points per game, 32.2 percent of his scoring output.
The state of Butler’s game led Miami to make him the primary ball-handler. Butler was responsible for 31.6 percent of the team’s pick and roll possessions averaging 6.8 per game last season. Butler also accounted for 11.1 percent of their dribble handoffs, averaging 1.1 per game.
Therefore, the Miami Heat would be better off starting Avery Bradley this season because of Herro’s involvement in trade rumors.