New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson’s at a career turning point

Mitchell Robinson has all the potential in the world, but the New York Knicks need to see it materialize before making a long-term commitment.

It’s hard to watch Mitchell Robinson without fantasizing about all of the best things his unique basketball abilities could allow him to do.

Few current players can match his 7’1” height and 7’4” wingspan. Those who can aren’t exactly agile enough to sprint from the paint all the way to get a hand on a 3-point shot, which Robinson has made a habit of in his brief NBA tenure.

He didn’t go to college and lacks the bulk to counter opposing bigs. There’s a shortage of awareness and IQ at either end that has him prone to commit silly if not downright unnecessary fouls. Legitimate concerns, yes, but not alarming enough to scare the New York Knicks away from trying to reap what could wind up being incredibly prosperous benefits.

“It’s all on him to keep developing because he’s got everything athletically and physically,” a Western Conference scout told The Athletic’s Mike Vorkunov back in May. “As long as he knows his role because I don’t know that he’ll ever stretch it … He could be an anchor.”

So, after taking a flier with the 36th pick in the 2018 Draft, the Knicks have spent the last two years getting the full Robinson experience.

The 22-year-old blocked a historic 10.9 percent of 2-pointers as a rookie and followed it up by breaking the single-season record for field goal percentage (74.2) previously held by Wilt Chamberlain. But whatever raw traits Robinson used to achieve such remarkable success hardly got the chance to blossom on account of the career 5.3 fouls he’s racked up per-36 minutes.

Such is the typical rollercoaster ride teams experience within the first two seasons for a project like Robinson, where the absence of a transitional one-and-done college season made the already accelerated pace of the NBA that much more overwhelming.

Ask anyone within the NBA, however, and they’ll tell you Year 3 is where the previously foreign nuances of the NBA become the norm and tangible talent begins to take shape. It’s the supposed breakout year with the potential offseason extension serving as an apt motivator.

If so, the early results for Robinson haven’t been encouraging across New York’s three preseason outings. The dunks have been thunderous and the blocks mesmerizing, but he’s averaged a whopping 4.7 fouls in just 24.4 minutes a night.

There has been no reveal of muscle added over the offseason. He’ll probably never be much of an outside shooter, yet most of the footage that filters through social media has Robinson doing his best Kevin Durant impression, imprinting pick-up games with a bevy of dribble moves into a 3-pointer.

What a player works on in the offseason and what they let us see are typically two completely different things. But has Robinson really earned the complete benefit of that doubt when he still hasn’t found a way to restrain himself from committing fouls like this?

The Knicks aren’t exactly the model franchise when it comes to player development, which has played a mighty part in Robinson’s somewhat linear progression. Tom Thibodeau will be his third coach in as many seasons. The lane he needs for take-off has been cluttered by non-shooting frontcourt partners like Julius Randle or Bobby Portis.

Most teams would agree that the best way to develop any prospect starts by throwing them into the fire of the experiences they need to grow accustomed to. Robinson has made only 26 career starts in 127 games, stuck behind the likes of Enes Kanter, Taj Gibson and now Nerlens Noel.

As much as Robinson needs an expanded role to ramp up his development, he also needs to give New York a reason to trust him with one.

“Perhaps it’s no coincidence Thibodeau used the terms ‘professionalism’ and ‘discipline’ when describing Robinson’s areas that require growth,” wrote New York Daily News’  Stefan Bondy in early December. “There have also been questions about his focus, specifically regarding Robinson’s experience with the Team USA Select Camp in 2019. Robinson arrived late – ‘there were all kinds of problems getting him to Vegas’ a Team USA source said — and left a poor impression on coaches and staff, according to sources.”

Money talks, and the Knicks will ensure it says plenty with the dollar amount of their first extension offer next summer. When a likely lowball offer comes, it won’t reflect New York’s desire to keep Robinson around as much as it is an indicator about how far hypothetical potential can take a player in the negotiating room when asking a team to commit tangible amounts of money.

Ever since he turned heads as a Summer League standout in 2018, so much of the discussion surrounding Robinson has been about what he can be. When is that conversation going to shift to what he is?

For the sake of his NBA career and the possible future of the Knicks, this upcoming season is looking like the time for Robinson to find a good enough answer.