NBA’s 2021 MVP race is shaping up to be as open as ever

Without an overwhelming favorite, the NBA could see an MVP race crowded with more legitimate candidates than ever before.

The NBA enters every season angling for a specific player to win MVP honors. Said player doesn’t enter the discussion out of thin air. Their superstar-level talent and relative team success would likely have forced them into the conversation regardless of who wants them there. Nevertheless, the award is theirs to lose because the manifested consensus — created mostly by the media that vote on it — affords them that challenge. More often than not, they’re able to ride that wave to the league’s most coveted individual honor.

If you asked the oddsmakers, the right of first refusal for the 2020-21 season belongs to Luka Doncic. Entering only his third season in the NBA, Doncic is already a reigning All-NBA First Team selection who led the Dallas Mavericks to a somewhat ahead-of-schedule playoff appearance and a feisty six-game first-round exit.

Even if Doncic shows little individual improvement from this past season, his near-triple-double averages from a season ago would be a worthy addition to the list of MVP stat lines. But his case for hardware in 2021 ignores what history tells us about how the award winner is determined.

Since 1985, only Michael Jordan in 1988 and Russell Westbrook in 2017 have captured MVPs on teams with anything less than the second-best record in their respective conference — Karl Malone’s 1999 Utah Jazz sat third in the west despite a top-two conference record due to the NBA’s previous preference towards division winners.

With roster upgrades in the form of Josh Richardson, the return of the injured Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell and the drafting of Josh Green, Tyrell Terry and Tyler Bey, the Mavs are trending upwards out west. In a vacuum, Dallas is going to look really good. Considering the state of their brutally competitive conference, that’s still not enough to guarantee a top-two seed, not with Kristaps Porzingis likely to miss the first handful of games — every win counts out west — and be eased in and load managed moving forward upon return.

Even if we assume the four teams with top-two records from last season hold steady this year, that hardly offers any stability when conjuring up MVP favorites.

Kawhi Leonard has never cared about the MVP award. In a condensed season, he’ll likely go to even greater lengths to conserve his energy in preparation for the playoffs, irking voters who, right or wrong, already hold his blatant form of load management against him.

The Toronto Raptors are best described as a whole greater than the sum of its parts. They pride themselves on not being carried by any single individual, which makes it difficult to single one out to represent the franchise in this discussion.

Defending champions have strong cases for the NBA’s MVP award

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are worthy MVP candidates in their own right. But even under normal circumstances, the presence of multiple top-five players on one team does more harm than good, splitting the vote between two equally deserving players who can’t separate from the other. And with the shortest offseason ever at just 71 days, it’s hard to imagine either putting in enough energy to make a convincing enough case.

Seven of the last 10 MVP winners came via teams with the leagues’ overall top record and the Milwaukee Bucks expect to claim that spot for a third consecutive season. That should theoretically put Giannis Antetokounmpo in line to win a third straight MVP. It’s the reality of voter fatigue that, short of breaking the record for single-season winning percentage, will draw voter’s attention elsewhere.

Zoom out of the league’s landscape in search of clarity and there will hardly be any to latch onto, with more questions about potential candidates than answers regarding their legitimacy.

Turning 23 in early March, an MVP award for Jayson Tatum would make him one of the five-youngest recipients in NBA history, at an earlier stage than even LeBron James. In closing the five-game gap that separated his Boston Celtics from the Raptors, he’d have to circumvent the departure of Gordon Hayward and the likely load management for Kemba Walker, taking on more responsibilities in the process. That’s a tall task for any young star no matter how advanced they appear.

Surpassing one of LA’s two powerhouses would require Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets to extend their bubble magic into the new season. Jamal Murray would also have to find some middle ground between his regular and breakout postseason performance to help push Denver’s win total towards where it needs to be.

The ceiling for the Brooklyn Nets is fairly high considering the duo leading the way and the high-end complementary pieces around them. After missing more than a year rehabbing a torn Achillies, will Kevin Durant be close enough to his former self to guide his new team as close to that peak as possible?

Can Jimmy Butler stream some of the necessitated selfishness that fueled the Miami Heat’s two Finals victories — and produced two incredible stat lines — across the 72-game season? Are the significant roster changes by the Philadelphia 76ers enough to push Joel Embiid towards the conditioning and shooting habits he’s consistently avoided? Does Damian Lillard finally have the wing assistance and bench depth to do his superstar talents justice in leading the Portland Trail Blazers?

Will Stephen Curry be able to produce enough artistry to even allow for his new cast of teammates to fill in the difference needed to vault the Golden State Warriors up the standings? Will James Harden be a Houston Rocket long enough to even try and make a case?

So many questions and hypotheticals for this award, none of which consider the role COVID-19 could have in shaping the outcome, removing any impact players from the action, thereby likely influencing the wins and losses that drive most every MVP campaign.

As if the most unique regular season in NBA history needed more reasons for people to invest in the day-to-day happenings. Have fun putting money on this award, because in this season more than any other, one person’s guess really is as good as anyone else’s.