Miami Heat: Why Tyler Herro should not start during the 2020-21 season

Taking a look at why not starting Tyler Herro is best for the Miami Heat’s long term plan of acquiring another star in 2021.

There is a significant amount of curiosity surrounding how Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra will use Tyler Herro this season. Herro spent his first day of media availability answering questions about whether he will be in the starting lineup or coming off the bench.

But would the team be better off with Herro in the starting lineup or coming off the bench? He should come off the bench for this upcoming season as starting would put a temporary ceiling on his trade value. This is because Miami ran an offensive system centered around the pick and roll and dribble handoffs last season.

The Heat ranked 13th in the league in pick and roll possessions last season averaging 21.5 per game. Jimmy Butler was responsible for 31.6 percent of the team’s pick and roll possessions, averaging 6.8 per game.

On the other hand, Miami was at the top of the league in dribble handoff possessions averaging 9.6 per game. Miami gave 11.4 percent of the dribble handoffs to Butler as he averaged 1.1 per game.

Miami is unlikely to reduce Butler’s ball-handling duties as it would limit the ways he can be productive. 32.2 percent of his offensive production came from inside the paint as he shot 63.9 percent in the restricted area on 5.0 attempts, which allowed him to generate 6.4 points per game.

More importantly, Butler has also declined as a shooter the last season, shooting 33.7 percent outside of the restricted area on 8.0 attempts per game. Butler’s shooting decreased by 2.2 percent from the 2018-19 season as he shot 35.9 percent outside of the restricted area.

Butler’s shooting regression has led to defenders ignoring him more often whenever he is off the ball. 61.9 percent of Butler’s threes were uncontested last season, averaging 1.3 open attempts per game. He converted on 30.8 of those open attempts.

Consequently, Herro would have to deal with the presence of a help defender whenever he has the ball in his hands. The only way Butler can force defenders to pay attention to him off the ball is as a cutter. Unfortunately, Butler isn’t known as a cutter because he has averaged 1.35 cuts per game over the last five seasons.

Herro would find himself in a similar position to what Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder experienced last season. Robinson and Crowder spent most of their minutes in a floor spacer role as they attempted 8.3 and 6.4 threes per game, respectively, more than 77 percent of their field goal attempts.

65.6 percent of their threes were of the catch and shoot variety. Herro would thrive in the floor spacer role as he made 44.2 percent of his catch and shoot threes last season on 3.0 attempts per game. Sadly, the role of floor spacer would hinder his trade value as other teams will see glimpses of his full skill set.

Herro performs best when he can combine his on and off the ball skills. For example, Herro touched the ball 76 times in a bubble game against OKC, 70.8 percent higher than his season average. The touches helped him attack the basket eight times, 40.3 percent more than his season average. He shot 40 percent from the field on five attempts creating six points, 20 percent of his scoring output.

Herro also made both of his catch and shoot threes, producing six points from those field goals. Catch and shoot attempts accounted for 33.3 percent of his threes as he made 50 percent of the field goals on six attempts, creating nine points for the team.

Hero’s on and off the ball skills were responsible for 46.7 percent of his scoring output as he had a regular season-high 30 points in that game against the Thunder. Therefore, Herro should be Miami’s sixth man during the entire 2020-21 season as it would give him more opportunities to showcase all of his skills.

Furthermore, Miami is looking to acquire a co-star to put alongside Butler for the 2021-22 season, whether that might be signing Giannis Antetokounmpo next summer or landing Bradley Beal in a trade.

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Miami would likely include Herro, either Duncan Robinson or Precious Achiuwa and a 2025 first-rounder in any blockbuster deal. If Herro can showcase his complete skill set as a sixth man, Washington will likely increase his value as an asset. Consequently, Miami can remove one of its assets from the trade.