Are the Atlanta Hawks trying to build too fast too soon?
Recent moves have put the Atlanta Hawks in a better spot in the present. But does that come at the expense of a potentially brighter future?
The Atlanta Hawks want to make the playoffs in 2020-21. By all accounts, their offseason acquisitions should put them in a favorable position to do so.
Danilo Gallinari offers the outside shooting the worst 3-point shooting team in the league from a season ago lacked. Rajon Rondo should close the crater that formed in Atlanta’s offense without the magic of Trae Young powering it. The Hawks’ defense was third-worst with Young its most glaring target who should be aided by the presence of Kris Dunn. Bogdan Bogdanovic has the type of upside worth throwing $72 million at.
The Eastern Conference is not as inferior as it once was. Seven teams are a near-lock to make the playoffs, leaving just the final seed up for grabs.
An eighth seed in question is all Atlanta needs considering its underwhelming competitors in places like Washington, Orlando and Charlotte. But if a championship is the ultimate endgame, one has to wonder if the path they’re heading down is the one that brings them closer to that goal.
This flurry of signings isn’t the first time the Hawks have projected a win-now approach. Last December, a report by The Athletic’s Shams Charania detailed frustration within the organization that included the consoling of a dejected Young with talks of roster improvements coming down the pipe. Clint Capela was acquired at the deadline less than two months later.
There’s a logical point in every rebuilding project that includes a playoff breakthrough. It comes after all the lottery picks have been used, the foundation of young talent set and when those same players begin to blossom.
But Atlanta’s present playoff-or-bust mentality is skipping some of those steps for not much of a return.
As impressive a roster as the Hawks have compiled, it’s not enough to earn anything more than the eighth seed and a quick first-round exit. They’re mistakenly narrowing their vision towards only what lies ahead instead of what could possibly sit down the line.
You forget because he’s already an All-Star but Young just wrapped up his sophomore season. John Collins is 23. Kevin Huerter was an All-Rookie Second Team selection two years ago. Top-10 picks were used to bring in De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in 2019, where their first taste of the NBA was a truncated season.
Along with incoming rookie Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks house a lot of high-upside young talent, most of whom are still in the developmental stages of their NBA careers. They need opportunities to chase the best versions of their basketball selves, the type that won’t come when they’re forced to split minutes with veterans brought in with the promise of consistent playing time.
“Like, yeah, of course, this guy’s going to make mistakes,” former Boston Celtics G League head coach and current New York Knicks assistant Darren Erman said last February about the benefits of giving big minutes to young players. “He’s a 20-year-old kid, but he has to make the mistakes in order for him to be a good 22-year-old player. If he doesn’t, if he’s not given the opportunity to make those mistakes, he’s never going to be a good 23-year-old player. And then you get to when he’s 23 and you’re like, well, he’s not good, well, you never got him an opportunity. He never had an opportunity to play.”
Young was fourth in scoring and second in assists last season. Collins was one of four players to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. Huerter is a high volume 3-point shooter and underrated secondary playmaker. The length of Hunter and Reddish offer the type of defensive switchability the modern defense requires.
It’s a foundation most rebuilding teams would love to have but is by no means a finished product. Atlanta must see to it that they get the chance to prove themselves or suffer the potential consequences.
What type of goodwill is the organization establishing with Collins by crowding the frontcourt with names who will no doubt take some of his minutes and touches — an extension will likely be agreed to, but don’t be surprised if Collins remembers these moves when he eventually becomes an unrestricted free agent and seeks out a franchise that shows him more love.
What will come when the contracts of Gallo, Rondo and Co. expire, they likely depart for greener pastures and the Hawks are suddenly thrusting responsibilities onto players who haven’t been prepared for it? How are the Hawks supposed to properly valuate guys like Hunter and Reddish when it comes time to talk extension or convince another team to relinquish their unhappy superstar with those two as the headlining return?
Contrary to popular belief, Atlanta doesn’t need to convince Young to sign his next contract. No player has turned down the lucrative extension he’s due for next summer. It’s in the half-decade that follows, with unrestricted free agency a looming cloud, when the Hawks have to make their pitch.
This isn’t to say even the best versions of Collins, Hunter or Reddish will offer the most compelling argument when that time comes. Plenty of other teams will have likely structured their cap space and roster in an attempt to pry Young away from Atlanta. But a quick playoff exit in 2021 or any year after isn’t going to do the trick either, not when it keeps the Hawks from having the more legitimate chance to grow towards the ultimate selling point that is championship contention.
A postseason berth is supposed to be a stepping stone to greater success, not where the ceiling comes into play. Considering who Atlanta is relying on to try and get there, their situation is looking more like that latter.
That’s not always a bad thing if the personnel aligns with the goal — think the Orlando Magic — but the young Hawks core about to take a backseat could have the potential for something greater.
It’s very possible Atlanta winds up foolish for not trying to see what that might look like.