With the Chicago Bulls eschewing a point guard in the draft, are they expecting Tomas Satoransky to step in and provide quality point guard minutes?
During the 2020 NBA Draft, the Chicago Bulls had an excellent chance to address their obvious deficiency in their point guard depth chart with the fourth overall pick. While LaMelo Ball would’ve been out of their reach, Chicago still had the likes of Killian Hayes, Tyrese Haliburton, and even Deni Avdija available to fortify their position of need. But, as we all know, the Bulls took none of those prospects.
Instead, the honor of being the first draft choice in the Arturas Karnisovas era went to Florida State swingman Patrick Williams, as the Bulls apparently couldn’t resist the 19-year-old’s versatility and potential as a shooter and tertiary shot creator.
Not to slight Williams, who could develop into an upper-tier 3-and-D combo forward, but anyone who watched even a handful of Bulls games knew this team needed, at least, an above-average playmaker to steer an offense that would view a “below-average” label as an upgrade.
So, what’s their plan this season for allocating point guard minutes? Will they trade for a competent veteran (which now seems unlikely)? Or, more frighteningly, do they actually think Coby White and Tomas Satoransky can handle that responsibility?
If Chicago believes the latter, it will be in for quite the surprise once the season starts — White, for one, is better suited as a two-guard — but, at least with Satoransky, it isn’t hard to see their rationale.
In terms of what most teams look for in a point guard, Satoransky checks a number of those boxes, particularly passing, court vision, and basketball IQ. And, to be fair, the Chicago offense performed better when he was in the lineup (108.7 offensive rating with Satoransky on the floor, 103.9 with him off). Much of his success was linked to his craftiness and execution of whatever the offensive play was.
Take this play in transition against the Cleveland Cavaliers, for example. Here, Satoransky gives a simple toss right into Luke Kornet’s shooting pocket and the little quasi-screen on Collin Sexton helps create a clean look for the usually reliable — except for last year — 3-point archer.
This play — which Zach LaVine initiated by badly deking Sexton, one of the worst defenders in the league, when he caught Sexton overplaying the pindown screen — shows how Satoransky operates when plays develop right in front of him.
Here’s another good set where the strongside defense is occupied by the double pindown action for Otto Porter Jr., with the defense respecting his 3-point proficiency. Satoransky hustles to the other side and initiates a handoff with Thaddeus Young and gives another one of those subtle screens to Larry Nance Jr., giving the Chicago Bulls forward a straight line to the rim.
It may not be the most glamorous aspect of the game, but there’s a tangible value in having someone who can boost an offense by delivering accurate passes within the flow of the offense that doesn’t force shooters to waste precious seconds repositioning themselves before getting into their shooting motion, given how quickly the average NBA player can close out on a field goal attempt.
However, there is a difference between being a good passer and a good playmaker, which is basically a shorthand for someone who creates easy scoring opportunities for their teammates. It’s that separates a decent player like Ricky Rubio from a superstar like James Harden or LeBron James.
Becoming a good playmaker requires an offensive repertoire that defenses must key in on, and that’s where the “Satoransky as a quality starting PG” thesis falls apart. Sure, he occasionally thrived against awful defenders — like when he caught an inattentive Trae Young off-guard here — but his inconsistencies as a scorer (53.3 true shooting percentage) often left the Bulls’ half-court offense resembling a cluttered mess.
The Chicago Bulls offense lagged with Satoransky on the floor
Remember that 108.7 offensive rating the Chicago Bulls had with Satoransky in the lineup last year? If you extrapolate that sample size, it would’ve ranked 23rd in the league. It’s still preferable to essentially turning into the worst offense in the association without him, but neither of those stats proves that relying on Satoransky for heavy point guard duties is the right move.
Teams simply didn’t fear whatever consequences came with a Satoransky jump shot or layup (he also struggled to finish in the paint and the restricted area) and that lack of respect across the board (59th percentile in BBall Index’s per game rim gravity, 65th percentile in midrange gravity, and 54th percentile in 3-point gravity) contributed to much of his struggles in the pick and roll (0.77 points per possession; 34th percentile).
After all, it’s hard to open up passing and driving lanes if you can’t take advantage of a player’s tendency to duck under every screen that’s set for you.
Players like Rubio and Rajon Rondo have proven that good passers who don’t pressure defenses in the half-court can succeed in this league — or, in the case of Rondo, heighten a team enough with sharp passing that can somewhat elevate a scoring attack in ways a less talented facilitator couldn’t.
Considering how the projected roster looks right now, the Chicago Bulls are obviously hoping for something similar from Satoransky: keep the offense on-balanced for set plays and hand the reigns over to LaVine when it’s time to get buckets in crunch time.
And you know what, that strategy might work against some of the worst teams in the league. It may even work against mediocre clubs from time to time. But against the NBA’s elite, in a league predicated on spacing and leveraging gravity, Chicago will need to do better than entrusting the offense to a guard who provides little of either.