Miami Heat: The team should not acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021

The Bam Adebayo extension doesn’t prevent the Miami Heat from acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021, but they should stay away

There is a belief within the league that the Miami Heat Giannis Antetokounmpo has made it harder for them to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 after signing Bam Adebayo to a max contract extension. Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald stated that the Adebayo extension has put Miami in a position where they have to perform some cap gymnastics to have max cap space next offseason.

But would Miami have to jump through hoops to acquire Antetokounmpo? Not necessarily, as according to Spotrac, the team only $68 million in guaranteed contracts in 2021. The team is currently scheduled to pay Breein Tyree, KZ Okpala, Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler $1.6, $1.7, $28.1, and $36 million, respectively.

The team has the power to trade or cut other players as those contracts contain club options. Consequently, the team can easily have $44 million in cap space, which is enough to sign Antetokounmpo as he would make $38.2 million in 2021.

Although the team can acquire Antetokounmpo, is he the right player for them? No, as Miami ran an offensive system centered around the dribble handoff and pick and roll last season. Miami ran the most dribble handoff possessions in the league last season, averaging 9.6 per game.

The team gave 69.8 percent of the dribble handoffs to Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro as they averaged 6.7 per game. On the other hand, the Heat ranked 13th in the league in pick and roll possessions averaging 21.5 per game. Miami allowed Jimmy Butler and Dragic to run 61.9 percent of the pick and rolls as they averaged 13.3 per game.

Miami’s offense puts Antetokounmpo in a position where he has one of two roles, a floor spacer or roll man. This is because Miami’s distribution of ball-handling duties forces frontcourt players to become floor spacers. For example, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk, and Jae Crowder took more than 50 percent of their field goals from behind the arc, attempting 2.2, 3.5, and 6.4 threes per game, respectively.

Unfortunately, Antetokounmpo’s history indicates that he would struggle in the role as he has a career shooting percentage of 28.4 percent from behind the arc on 2.1 attempts per game. Antetokounmpo’s subpar shooting has led defenders to leave him open on all of his 3-pointers this season. He has converted 29.8 percent of those open field goals on 4.7 attempts per game.

Consequently, the Miami Heat will have less floor spacing as they will consistently deal with a help defender. Less spacing diminishes the effectiveness of Jimmy Butler as most of his offensive production came from the paint last season.

Butler attacked the basket 15.5 times per game during the regular season, which helped him get 5.0 field goal attempts in the restricted area. The 5.0 field goal attempts accounted for 38.2 percent of his shots during the regular season. Butler capitalized on his ability to get in the restricted area. He shot 63.9 percent in the restricted area, which allowed him to generate 6.4 points per game, 32.2 percent of his scoring output.

Therefore, Miami would have no other choice but to use Antetokounmpo as a roll man. Antetokounmpo has thrived in the role shooting 60.5 percent from the field on 0.9 attempts per game over the last four seasons. The field goal percentage helped him generate 1.44 points per game on 1.16 possessions.

Miami using Antetokounmpo as a roll man would most likely push Bam Adebayo into the floor spacer role. Floor spacer would be a foreign role for Adebayo as he has only averaged 0.2 threes per game for his career. Adebayo’s inexperience as a floor spacer will lead defenders to ignore him until he consistently converts the shot.

The lack of spacing should force Butler to take more field goal attempts outside the restricted area. Unfortunately, Butler struggled to make field goals outside of the restricted area shooting 33.7 percent from the field on eight attempts per game, a 2.2 percent decrease from the 2018-19 season.

Who the Miami Heat should be pursuing in 2021

TheMiami Heat would be better off pursuing Paul George, who currently can be a free agent in 2021. George has the tools to thrive as a floor spacer with a career shooting percentage of 38.1 percent from behind the arc on 6.4 attempts per game.

George’s shooting forced defenders to stay closer to him as only 75.9 percent of his 3-pointers were uncontested this season. He converted 43.3 percent of the open threes on six attempts.

George’s shooting ability would make it easier for other players to be productive. For example, George would open the floor for Butler to attack the basket. George would allow the team to keep Adebayo as a roll man where he has excelled.

Adebayo has rolled to the basket 2.1 times per game over the past four-plus seasons. Adebayo is shooting 60.2 percent from the field when rolling to the basket on 1.6 attempts per game, allowing him to score 2.3 points. It has accounted for 21.9 percent of his scoring average.

If George signs elsewhere, the team should pursue a Bradley Beal trade as he has the same capability as George. Beal has a career shooting percentage of 38 percent from behind the arc on six attempts per game. The team could offer a package centered around Robinson, Nunn, and Herro to Washington for Beal.

In conclusion, the Miami Heat should pass on signing Antetokounmpo in 2021 as his skills don’t compliment the team’s current stars.