Miami Heat: Why they should not sign Paul Millsap in NBA free agency

The Miami Heat have reportedly discussed pursuing Paul Millsap in NBA free agency. Let’s take a look at why that would be a bad idea.

The Miami Heat have been positioned as one of the teams that has thought about signing free agent power forward Paul Millsap this offseason. Ethan J Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports Network stated last month that the team discussed pursuing Millsap in free agency by offering him a portion of the mid-level exception.

But is Millsap the right type of player for the team? No, because Miami uses power forwards as a floor spacer. Head coach Erik Spoelstra installed an offensive system revolving around the dribble handoff and pick and roll last season.

Miami was 13th in pick and roll possessions this past regular season, averaging 21.5 per game. Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic accounted for 61.9 percent of the team’s pick and roll possessions as they averaged 13.3 per game.

On the other hand, the Miami Heat led the league in dribble handoffs during the regular season averaging 9.6 per game. 69.8 percent of the dribble handoffs went to Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Dragic as they combined for 6.7 possessions per game.

Miami’s distribution of the ball-handling duties forced other role players to be floor spacers. For example, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk, and Jae Crowder took more than 50 percent of their field goals from behind the arc, attempting 2.2, 3.5, and 6.4 threes per game, respectively.

Unfortunately, Millsap hasn’t been known as a volume 3-point shooter. Millsap has a career shooting percentage of 34.3 percent from behind the arc on 1.4 attempts per game. 3-pointers have accounted for 13.2 percent of total field goals throughout his career.

More importantly, Millsap attempted a career-high 2.4 threes per game last season, 28.3 percent of his field goal attempts. Consequently, Millsap would be in the same position as his former teammate Al Horford this past season.

Horford had a career shooting percentage of 36.8 percent from behind the arc before joining Philadelphia on 1.3 attempts per game. The 3-pointers accounted for 11.1 percent of his field goal attempts. In Philadelphia, Horford attempted 4.2 threes per game, 39.9 percent of his total field goal attempts.

The increase in 3-pointers produced results below Philadelphia’s expectations as Horford converted 35 percent of those shots. Horford’s below-average shooting led to defenders leaving wide open consistently as 97.6 percent of his threes were uncontested attempts. Consequently, Philadelphia had to deal with a help defender for a significant amount of his minutes.

For example, Jaylen Brown decided to stand near the free throw line rather than guard Horford on the left-wing in the first quarter of a Boston Celtics versus Philadelphia 76ers game. Brown prioritized stopping Ben Simmons, who brought the basketball up the floor. Simmons picked up on Brown’s decision and passed the ball to Horford. Unfortunately, Horford badly missed the 3-pointer, creating a turnover.

The easiest way Millsap can thrive in Miami is if the team uses him as a roll man and in the post. Millsap’s best offensive season came during the 2016-17 campaign when he averaged 18.1 points per game.

Millsap rolled to the basket 4.5 times per game during that season, shooting percent from the field as a roll man on 3.6 shot attempts. The field goal percentage helped Millsap create 3.8 points per game, 21 percent of his scoring output.

Unfortunately, Miami predominantly used Bam Adebayo in the role as he averaged 2.9 possessions per game, 46.8 percent of the team’s possessions last season. Furthermore, no other player on the roster averaged more than 1 possession per game.

Millsap also had success in the post as he shot 49.2 percent from the field on 2.9 attempts in 6.4 possessions per game. The field goal percentage helped him generate 3.8 points per game. 21 percent of his scoring output. Unfortunately, Miami was 18th in the league in post-up possessions averaging 8.1 per game last season.

In conclusion, unless the Miami Heat accentuate Millsap’s strengths, he is likely to have the same problem as Horford.