NBA free agency: 3 possible destinations for Christian Wood
By Duncan Smith
The Detroit Pistons found a diamond in the rough last season in Christian Wood, but if he doesn’t re-sign, these 3 NBA free agency destinations make sense.
Christian Wood is one of the most interesting players the Detroit Pistons have seen come through their organization in years. Drifting from team to team at the end of the bench or putting in time in the G League, he finally found a home in Detroit in 2019-20. It may be a shortlived home, however, as Wood is due for a payday in NBA free agency this offseason.
There are a number of factors that can influence his ultimate destination. The Pistons would clearly like to keep him, and the amount they’re willing to pay is likely in the $12-15 million starting salary range. ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggests his salary could be in the range of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which should be around $9.5 million, but Marks’s colleague Kevin Pelton suggests (Insiders paywall) that Wood could be the third-best free agent on the market this year, behind Anthony Davis and Fred VanVleet, and ahead of Brandon Ingram.
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This is lofty company, and it suggests that Marks may be low in his projections.
Using Jacob Goldstein‘s PIPM salary tool, we can get a decent idea of what Wood might command on the open market. Assuming 25 percent usage and averaging 25 minutes per game over an 82 game season, the tool projects Wood to provide positive value 98.5 percent of the time on a three-year, $36 million deal, which exceeds the amount of a three-year deal signed for the mid-level exception.
If we increase Wood’s minutes to an average of 30 per game (basically starter minutes), he has a 99.2 percent chance of providing positive value on that $36 million deal. Of course, these are just projections based on a one-season sample of outstanding performances from Christian Wood, and the reality on the ground may prove to be somewhat different.
However, the fact remains that the Detroit Pistons may not be able to re-sign him for a favorable low number like they’re hoping for, and that opens the door for other suitors to swoop in and woo him away. We’ll take a look at three of the best NBA free agency destinations for Christian Wood in the eventuality that this happens.