Washington Wizards: How much is Davis Bertans worth in NBA free agency

What can Danilo Gallinari’s contract tell us?

$15 million per season is not what it used to be. The salary cap is projected to be at $115 million this upcoming season and was expected to be at $125 million before the coronavirus pandemic altered the NBA’s economic landscape. The fact that the salary cap went up is a good sign for the league’s future economic health, as it is directly tied to the amount of basketball-related income generated by the league, but it is not as if it’s not a huge loss.

The players and the owners split revenue at close to 50-percent. A drop of $10 million from the salary-cap, multiplied over the 30 teams, and then doubled means the league lost almost $600 million in expected basketball-related revenue. The league’s finances are still soaring but teams won’t be looking to overpay non-superstars. Davis Bertans will have a market but it’s unlikely to rival what Danilo Gallinari received, even if they appear to be very similar players.

When Danilo Gallinari signed his three-year, $65 million contract in the summer of 2017 the NBA salary cap was $94 million. His contract averaged $21.67 million per season and represented roughly 23-percent of the salary cap. On a per-36 minutes basis, Bertans 2019-20 season compares favorably to Danilo Gallinari’s three seasons before he signed his contract in 2017.

Per 36 minutes

Player/Season(s)      Points    Rebounds    Assists       3P%

Bertans/2019-20       19.0           5.6               2.1           42.4%

Gallinari/2014-17     19.4           5.5               2.4             37%

So why does Bertans deserve less money than Gallinari? Simple, Gallinari simply played more. If Gallinari’s 2014-15 season is removed, as he was eased back into the line-up following an ACL injury, over the course of the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons he averaged 34.3 minutes per game compared to the 29.3 minutes Bertans averaged this past year. Bertans played 85.4 percent as often as Gallinari and should expect no more than 85.4 percent of the contract Gallinari signed.

Danilo Gallinari’s three-year $65 million contract took up 23 percent of the salary cap in 2017. If Bertans deserves 85.4 percent of what Gallinari commanded back then, then he’d be expected to secure a contract around 19.6 percent of the salary cap. If the salary cap is going to be $115 million then Bertans should expect a contract that pays roughly $22.6 million per season. So why shouldn’t Bertans expect much more than $15 million per season from the Wizards?