Why the Miami Heat should not re-sign Jae Crowder during the 2020 offseason

The Miami Heat are expected to offer Jae Crowder a big one-year deal but that would be a mistake as he is unlikely to replicate his offensive production.

There is a belief around the league that the Miami Heat will offer Jae Crowder a one-year deal at the beginning of free agency. Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel stated earlier this month that Miami is expected to offer Crowder this deal as they want to have cap space to sign a max-caliber player in 2021.

But should Miami prioritize re-signing Crowder this offseason? They should not, and that’s because of his offensive role. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra ran an offensive system centered around the dribble handoff and pick and roll this past season.

Miami led the league in dribble handoffs during the regular season averaging 9.6 per game. Crowder was only involved in 9.4 percent of those possessions as he averaged 0.9 per game in 20 regular-season appearances.

Crowder saw a decline in his involvement with the dribble handoff in the playoffs as he averaged 0.8 per game. Crowder accounted for 7.3 percent of the possessions as Miami was the leader in dribble handoff averaging 10.9 per game.

Crowder has the same with the pick and roll as he only averaged 0.6 per game during the regular season. Crowder was solely responsible for 2.8 percent of those possessions as Miami was 13th in pick and rolls, averaging 21.5 per game.

Crowder saw a decline in his pick and roll possessions during the postseason as he averaged 0.4 per game. Crowder accounted for 2.1 percent of those possessions as the team averaged 19.4 per game.

The lack of an on-ball role led Crowder to be a floor spacer as he took 78 percent of his field goals from behind the arc during the regular season. At first glance, floor spacing wasn’t the right role for Crowder as he shot 31.3 percent from behind the arc on 4.9 attempts per game before joining the Heat.

Crowder’s subpar shooting led defenders to give him space as 79 percent of his threes were considered open attempts. Crowder converted 35 percent of his open attempts producing 4.1 points per game for teams.

Miami’s gamble initially paid off as Crowder shot 44.5 percent from behind the arc on 6.4 attempts per game during 20 regular-season games. 87.5 percent of those field goals were open attempts. Crowder made 44.6 percent of the open attempts helping him generate 8.7 points per game.

Crowder felt that his improved performance was due to getting more touches as the team used more ball movement. He told reporters in March that there weren’t changes to his shot. He just had more confidence because the team prioritized getting everyone involved by moving the basketball.

Can Jae Crowder replicate his shooting for the Miami Heat?

Unfortunately, it was more of a hot streak as Crowder regressed back towards the mean in the playoffs. Crowder took 80.1 percent off his field goal attempts from behind the arc, shooting 34.2 percent on 7.7 attempts per game.

81.8 percent of those field goals were open attempts. Crowder’s efficiency fell by 8.1 percent as he made 36.5 percent of the open attempts creating 6.9 points per game for the team

Therefore, the Miami Heat would be unwise to offer Crowder a one-year deal due to his shooting track record. Miami would be better off letting Crowder walk and offer the mid-level exception ($9.25 million) to Marcus Morris.

Morris is better suited to thrive as a floor spacer because he has a career shooting percentage of 36.7 percent from behind the arc on four attempts per game. Defenders did not contest 88.4 percent of the attempts. Morris made 38.2 percent of those open attempts, which helped him generate 4.4 points per game.

Miami also would not be losing anything defensively with Morris as he held opponents to 44.5 percent shooting from the field on 9.6 attempts per game in the regular season. Morris’ defensive statistics improved in the postseason as he held opponents to 41.4 percent shooting on 10.2 attempts per game.

On the other hand, Crowder held opponents to 47.2 percent shooting on 9.7 attempts per game in the regular season. Crowder slightly improved his postseason statistics as he held opponents to 46.3 percent shooting on 12.8 attempts per game.

In conclusion, it would be a bad idea for the Miami Heat to re-sign Crowder because of how he is utilized.